China is claiming more of the South China Sea as its own. Unfortunately,
China’s territorial pretensions clash with separate claims by Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia and the Philippines.
SANSHA City is China’s newest
municipality. Extending over two square kilometres and with 613 residents,
Sansha City has its own mayor, sea and airport, supermarket, as well as a
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) garrison.
Established on the Yongxing or
“Woody” Island in the Paracel Islands of the South China Sea, the municipality
represents a bold assertion of Chinese control.
Sadly in the face of such brute
determination, Asean has merely whimpered.
Indeed, earlier this month at the
normally-staid Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Phnom Penh, the grouping
revealed its ineffectiveness and lack of unity in the face of high-level
lobbying from Chinese and American officials when the association failed to
produce a joint communique at the conclusion of the meeting.
In short, we are in danger of
becoming passive participants in the new “Great Game” – the geopolitical
face-off between China and the United States.
Unsurprisingly, the main point of
contention was the South China Sea, with its overlapping territorial claims,
historical grudges and energy politics all jumbled up.
China claims most of the South
China Sea as its own.
Unfortunately, China’s
territorial pretensions clash with separate claims by Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia
and the Philippines.
The contest is heightened because
of two factors – the importance of the trading routes and the vast natural
resources under the sea itself – estimated to be as much as 213 billion barrels
of oil and two quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas.
China, unsurprisingly, has always
been quick to assert its rights.
It clashed with Vietnam in 1974
over the Paracel Islands and came dangerously close to repeating the experience
with the Philippines earlier this year when their navies engaged in a tense
stand-off near the Scarborough Shoal.
A more Asia-focused United States
has weighed in to support its former Philippine colony.
Troop deployments in Australia
and improved relations with Myanmar and Vietnam have created a potentially
explosive mix.
Meanwhile, Asean is little more
than the proverbial (and increasingly scared) mousedeer caught between two
feuding elephants.
In many ways, though, Asean’s
indecisiveness is perhaps unsurprising.
It’s further proof that there’s
little holding us together – besides the overly confident boosterism of the
business community seeking to establish a unified market of over 600 million
consumers.
For decades, we’ve paid
lip-service to the grouping whilst pulling our separate ways.
Now, when we really need to fend
off Great Power interference, we’re confronted by our lack of cohesiveness and
disunity.
In short, all the golf and durian
diplomacy has floundered and we’re stuck in a veritable “bunker”.
On the one hand, Cambodia’s
refusal to endorse a joint communiqué at the meeting reflected its near-total
economic reliance on China.
According to news reports, the
Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong’s manner didn’t help matters either.
Meanwhile, Vietnam and the
Philippines have been forced to balance their historical antipathy towards
China with the reality of the Middle Kingdom’s proximity and sheer might.
Indonesia (mindful of its own
size) appears to view the deadlock as an opportunity to demonstrate its
regional leadership credentials.
As a consequence, President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono directed his Foreign Minister, Marty Natelgawa to tour
Asean in search of a fresh consensus on the issue.
For Malaysia and Singapore, the
South China Sea impasse requires extreme delicacy.
As multiracial trading nations,
both must assert their sovereignty and Asean credentials without alienating
China.
Still, Asean must deal with
contemporary realities.
Whilst we’ve been a diplomatic
backwater for decades, the economically resilient grouping is no longer under
the radar screen.
As one of the few economically
robust regions, we’re now front and centre – besides which, with China on the
rise, we’re geopolitically important.
This is all very dramatic and fun
to read about but in reality it’s a painful headache as China and the United
States stalk one another warily.
Let’s face it: the “Asian
Century” is going to be fraught with danger and insecurity and I haven’t even
begun to discuss the increasingly erratic and dysfunctional Chinese foreign
policy and military apparatus.
The core issue is – do we “hang”
together or go our separate ways?
We in Asean need to resolve this
fundamental challenge.
Do we promote and implement
“regional integration” as well as the “Asean community” or do we cut deals with
China one-on-one?
The South China Sea is crunch
time for Asean, and Malaysia.
We can either continue dithering
and be reduced to pawns on a chessboard, or band together to show the world
that we intend to live up to our geopolitical promise as well.
The choice is ours – but I guess
it’ll have to wait until after the General Election. Sigh...
KARIM RASLAN
Business & Investment Opportunities
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