Challenges lie ahead for Thailand to show the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations it can help resolve the South China Sea dispute and ensure it
does not disrupt regional stability.
Thailand will be given the task
of being Asean's coordinator with China for three years when it takes over the
position from Vietnam on July 25.
The priority is clear: Thailand
must work with Beijing and convince it to agree to the Code of Conduct in the
South China Sea.
Whether or not the code of
conduct will be implemented over the next three years remains to be seen.
As China coordinator, Thailand
must at least help build confidence among Asean members and dialogue partners,
foster trust among the countries involved in the South China Sea dispute to
ease tension in the area and work closely with China to show outsiders,
including the United States, that Asean can manage the conflict on its own.
Tensions over the territorial
disputes in the South China Sea have increased over the last several months
between the Philippines and China, and between Vietnam and China.
One conflict, which has lasted
for months, involves a standoff between lightly armed Chinese and Philippine
vessels at the Scarborough Shoal off the coast of the Philippines. Another
dispute centres on a law enacted in Vietnam that claims sovereignty over the
Paracel and Spratly Islands, which China also claims.
In addition to the Philippines
and Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia are also claimants. China and Taiwan also
claim part or all of the area.
In 2002, Beijing and Asean signed
the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. The document
is non-binding and covers mostly soft issues such as maritime scientific
research and environmental protection.
Asean wants China to sign the
South China Sea Code of Conduct to set the rules for all parties concerned to
operate in the disputed area and ease tensions in the area. The thrust of the
code is to use peaceful means to settle problems.
Thailand must be neutral and act
as a mediator to calm the stakeholders. This became especially true after the
Asean foreign ministers ended their meeting in Phnom Penh on Friday with no
unified position on common language for a joint communique on the issue. China
successfully lobbied the host Cambodia, which is chair of Asean and a close
ally of Beijing, to block some language from the document. That was seen as the
reason the ministers failed for the first time in 45 years to issue a joint
communique.
Permanent Secretary for foreign
affairs Sihasak Phuangketkeow said China should accept the reality that working
behind the scenes like that will be counterproductive. China should realise
that the 10-member grouping can help China to balance power in the region with
the US, the official added.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty
Natalegawa was also disheartened by the stalemate. "It's very, very
disappointing that at this 11th hour, Asean is not able to rally around certain
common language on the South China Sea. We've gone through so many problems in
the past, but we've never failed to speak as one," he said.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton praised Asean's maturity when she raised the issue during the
East Asia Summit meeting on Thursday.
"I think it is a sign of
Asean's maturity that they are wrestling with some very hard issues here.
They're not ducking them; they are walking right into them. And I have worked
in many multilateral settings, and it is not at all unusual for much more mature
organisations to be working on and discussing and even arguing about certain
matters past the deadlines in order to try to see if there's a way
forward," Mrs Clinton said.
She said it was not up to the US
or China, but rather the Asean members themselves to show a united front.
However, during the next three
years, Thailand will face a tough task in trying to bring China and Asean back
to the negotiating table. It is unlikely that Asean and China will discuss the
South China Sea Code of Conduct in September as earlier planned as Beijing has
said it would give serious consideration to when the time is right.
Although it might take time to
let the claimants calm down about the issue, Bangkok prefers to let them
resolve their individual conflicts bilaterally, an approach which is in line
with China's position. Having experience in using the Asean mechanism to solve
the Thai-Cambodian border conflict over the Preah Vihear temple, Bangkok wants
to do the same with the South China Sea. Thailand does not want other countries
to intervene in the problem as it believes bilateral conflicts can be best
resolved between the claimant nations. But first, the countries must show
self-restraint and opt for negotiations over the use of force.
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