The International Monetary Fund has kept its 2012 growth forecast for
the so-called “Asean 5” countries, which includes the Philippines, even as it
marginally cut its global economic growth projection amid perceived worsening
of the economic condition in the eurozone.
In its latest World Economic
Outlook (WEO) report released Monday, the IMF said its average growth forecast
for the Asean 5 remains at 5.4 percent for this year.
The multilateral funding agency
includes in the Asean 5 the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and
Vietnam, which are, in turn, part of the 10-member Association of Southeast
Asian Nations.
For the world economy, its growth
forecast for the year was reduced to 3.5 from an earlier projection of 3.6
percent made in April. This took into account escalating problems in the euro
area, where sovereign debt problems are being compounded by financial woes of
its banking sector, and sluggish performance of the United States’ economy.
The IMF now expects the US to
grow by just 2 percent this year from its earlier forecast of 2.1 percent. On
the eurozone, the IMF still sees it contracting by 3 percent this year.
The IMF said recent interest rate
cuts implemented by central banks in emerging markets, such as the Philippines,
will help cushion the adverse impact of a potentially worse condition in the
eurozone.
It said, however, that emerging
economies should exercise flexibility in case additional measures may be
required if the impact of external shocks escalates.
“In emerging and developing
economies, policymakers should stand ready to adjust policies, given spillovers
from weaker advanced economy prospects and slowing export growth and volatile
capital flows,” the IMF said in the report.
The move of the IMF to keep its
growth forecast for 2012 for the Asean 5 is consistent with the consensus
projection that the region will manage to keep a decent growth rate even with
the drag caused by problems in the eurozone.
Meantime, for 2013, the IMF sees
Asean 5 growing by a faster rate of 6.1 percent as a gradual improvement in the
global economy is seen improving appetite for their exports. The 2013
projection for the Asean 5, however, was lower than the original forecast of
6.2 percent.
Moreover, the world economy is
seen accelerating to 3.9 percent in 2013 as the impact of stimulus measures
being implemented in advanced economies is expected to have kicked in by then.
The figure, however, is lower than the original 2013 growth projection of 4.1
percent for the world economy.
The IMF said emerging markets are
seen growing by decent rates, but are not totally immune from the effects of
problems in the US and the eurozone.
In the US—which is a key export
market for the Philippines—recovery from the 2009 recession remains slow. The
eurozone, another main export destination, has yet to manifest its debt woes,
it added.
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