"Tangled relations" accurately illustrates the current
situation in East Asia.
The complexities of the strategic
wrestling between China and the United States, constant confrontation on both
sides of the Korean Peninsula, endless emerging crises in the East and South
China Sea, subtle changes in Sino-Japan, Sino-South Korea and Sino-ASEAN
(Association of Southeast Asian Nations) relations as well as an intensifying
regional arms race haunt the region, while observers ask: "what, exactly,
is going wrong?"
Others may offer differing
perspectives, but for me, the territorial disputes that have been going on for
generations in the East and South China Seas remain the front lines of a battle
over resources.
One one hand, the surging demand
for natural resources is due to the rapid and peaceful development of East Asia
over the past three decades. Disputes over sea resources have exploded as
countries vie for economic advantage in an increasingly competitive world.
Additionally, the United States
'return to Asia' has disrupted the regional equilibrium. Whether intentional or
not, a number of the countries in the region rely on the superpower's influence
to impose constraints on China. Uncle Sam is far from being "impartial"
and "neutral" in these disputes ― its public or non-public
interference consequently fans the flames even higher. With America's backing,
dialogue previously used to solve relevant disputes has been abandoned in favor
of threats.
If relations continue to
deteriorate due to East Asian countries' blind hostilities, these territorial
disputes would probably provoke one, if not several, military skirmishes. It
would be a replay of wars fought in Middle East over the last few decades ―
wars that were also based on historical territorial claims and access to
resources [such as oil].
Also the situation in East Asia
is at a critical juncture, the problems faced by the region now should be
classified as "thorny" rather than "threatening" because
they can still be kept under control. The situation is vastly different from
the constant threat of annihilation which characterized the height of the Cold
War in the 1950s to 1970s.
Objectively speaking, none of the
East Asian countries except North Korea have publicly announced who their
enemies are. No country, even the US, which deploys legions of aircraft and
warships in the region, wants to fight a war. The best possible explanation for
this is that whenever conflict erupts, the outcome usually does not turn out
how either side expects.
Most East Asian countries hope to
maintain peace and stability in the region, wishing to continue to reap the
benefits of economic cooperation. Those in the mainstream counteract the
volatilities caused by those who carry more radical views.
Of course, we should not rule out
the possibility that some countries have purposely instigated and escalated
these conflicts for the sake of their own strategic and economic interest.
But when faced with the
possibility of armed conflict, those countries would undoubtedly weigh the pros
and cons of costly wars which would be a severe blow to regional stability,
long-term prosperity and the interests of all countries.
The troubles East Asia confronts
today will not lead to armed conflict, as long as the parties can identify the
key elements causing problems and enact proper controls to stabilize the
regional situation.
Tian Yifeng
The author is a researcher on international and regional security.
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