East Asia is increasingly becoming a region of contradictions. On the
one hand, it has become a center of global attention due to the growing
significance of the region to the global economy. Speedy economic growth in the
region, particularly in China and India, has fuelled talk about the coming of
an Asian century.
From a strategic point of view,
many have also pointed out that the center of gravity of global politics has
shifted to East Asia. In short, East Asia has been described as the future
center of global prosperity.
However, there is still doubt as
to whether the region’s growing prosperity will be followed by regional
stability. Ongoing diplomatic tensions and political spats over a number of
territorial issues point to a worrying future for peace and stability in the
region. Indeed, territorial disputes in East Asia have begun to emerge as a
serious flash point, raising regional concerns about the future of East Asia as
a whole. In other words, as peace in East Asia remains precarious; prosperity
cannot be taken for granted.
Just look at the South China Sea,
where tensions have been simmering for months. Diplomatic squabbles between
China and two Southeast Asian countries — Vietnam and the Philippines — on
competing claims in the South China Sea have begun to affect the wider region.
For the first time in 45 years, ASEAN’s Foreign Ministers Meeting (AMM) failed
to issue a joint communiqué. The failure was caused by only one issue: the
South China Sea.
Despite Indonesia’s efforts to
restore ASEAN’s unity on the issue and a push for the early conclusion of a
code of conduct on the South China Sea, a peaceful outcome of this process is
still far from certain. On the contrary, as the military dimension of the
dispute gradually adds complications to the problem, the prospect for managing
the dispute through peaceful means might even become more difficult. Moreover,
there is also an emerging strategic rivalry between China and the US at the
background that might make any attempt to manage the problem even more
challenging.
At the same time, bilateral
territorial disputes between ASEAN countries — such as between Malaysia and
Indonesia and between Thailand and Cambodia — have also created diplomatic
tension among the disputing parties.
Territorial disputes are also a
cause for concern in Northeast Asia. Dispute between China and Japan over the
Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands has long been a problem in bilateral relations
between Beijing and Tokyo. Between Japan and South Korea, the dispute over the
Takeshima or Dokdo Islets has also served as an irritant in Tokyo and Seoul’s
bilateral relations. However, recent diplomatic tensions between Tokyo and
Beijing and between Tokyo and Seoul demonstrate how territorial disputes remain
a serious problem for the region.
The problem between China and the
four ASEAN claimants in the South China Sea is being addressed within the
framework of the Declaration of Conduct (DoC) and ASEAN and China are also
working on a Code of Conduct (CoC) that could serve as a platform for managing
the problem peacefully. Japan and South Korea are both American allies, and the
US could play a mediating role to ease the tension between the two. Of all East
Asia’s territorial disputes, therefore, the problem between China and Japan is
particularly worrying in this regard. It is not clear how both sides are going
to manage the territorial dispute.
In fact, recent developments in
China-Japan relations have not generated much optimism. The dispute over the
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands has once again heightened tensions between the two
countries. Both sides were soon locked in a tit-for-tat game: a Hong Kong-based
pro-China group — calling itself the Action Committee for Defending the Diaoyu
Islands — landed on a disputed island in the area, Japan arrested and deported
the group, protests with visible anti-Japanese tone took place in parts of
China, a number of Japanese activists retaliated by landing on the same island,
followed by complaints from China’s government.
The cycle might not stop there.
The Hong Kong-based group now plans to organize more protests outside Japanese
embassies and consulates around the world on Sept. 18, and has urged ethnic
Chinese all over the world to join the protests. As nationalism becomes part of
the dispute, further frictions between the two countries are not unlikely.
These territorial problems, if
not managed properly and in a restrained manner, will seriously undermine
peace, stability, and prosperity in East Asia. Parties to the disputes — both
in Southeast and Northeast Asia — need to realize that the promise of Asian
century is too valuable to be undermined by territorial conflicts.
Rizal Sukma
The writer is executive director of the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.
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