Probably this time because the weather's better but if they took the
same hit, look out
A year ago, central Thailand was
inundated with what may have been the worst floods in the country’s history,
covering the Ayutthaya plain with up to three meters of water and drowning a
major segment of the multinational car and electronics industries that had
settled there.
The question today is whether it
could happen again. Although the Thai government has developed a reconstruction
plan focused on immediate relief and recovery and as well as projected
long-term solutions including raising dykes, extensive reforestation and other
solutions, there are reasons to be concerned whether the government is moving
fast enough.
Certainly, as climate change has
grown more severe, severe weather incidents have been picking up all over the
region. Although there have been no signs so far that Thailand might take
another hit like the country got from last year’s Tropical Storm Nock Ten,
which inundated 20 Thai provinces, at least 85,000 people in Myanmar next door
to Thailand were forced out of their homes this month by what has been
described as the worst flooding since 2004.
Other cities have been hit hard
as well. Manila has been flooded repeatedly. Beijing was hit by the heaviest
rainfall in 60 years in late July, leaving 37 people dead and thousands
stranded at the city’s main airport. Roofs collapsed and downed power lines
electrocuted an unknown number of people Taiwan has been battered by Tropical
Storm Tambin, which dropped 500 mm of rain on the southern part of the island
and appears about to return it again. Tropical Storm Bolaven has turned into a
super typhoon, with sustained winds of 185 km per hour and is headed straight
up the Yellow Sea towards North Korea. Citizens of Jiangsu in China have been
warned to prepare for severe weather.
“While the 2011 (Thai) flood
disaster was exceptional in scale and impact, climate change projections
suggest that natural disasters of this kind are likely to occur more frequently
and more severely in Thailand in the years ahead,” the Asia Foundation warned
in a recent report. “It is important to recognize that this unique moment needs
to extend beyond the communities that were most seriously affected by the 2011
flooding and that Thailand needs to develop good practices, lessons learned,
and knowledge-sharing to shape and influence broader and longer-term
environmental governance in Thailand.”
So did Thailand learn its lesson?
The answer is yes and maybe. Construction work to raise levees and dikes has
been going on feverishly. The multinational electronics and car assembly
companies -- predominantly Japanese and American ones – have taken their own
steps. The government has been criticized on several fronts by creating a
development plan that was both too hasty and somewhat too late.
One of the biggest problems in
2011 was that government officials left too much water in five reservoirs
upstream from the major urban areas surrounding Bangkok. The government has
this time left considerably less water in the reservoirs, according to a study
by the Japanese External Trade Organization (JETRO). In January, the country’s
two largest dams, Bhumibol Dam was 91 percent full, Sirikit Dam 89 percent
full. By the end of March, both had been reduced to 60 percent. According to
Jetro, capacity of the two is now down to about 45 percent.
Rivers are being dredged to
increase capacity, according to the JETRO study, so that water can flow faster
towards the Isthmus. Existing inner roads are being raised and turned into
dikes to act as a bulwark against high water. Entrance routes are being raised
into the factories so that trucks and can move in and out to evacuate goods.
Massive concrete barriers are being built around industrial parks themselves.
For instance, at the Sudhrat
Nakon industrial park, 43 factories are expected to be now crouching behind a
12-kilometer earth dike and serviced by an elevated entrance road that has been
raised from 6.5 meters to 8 meters. Detention areas – areas where floodwaters
can be diverted safely until water levels have begun to fall – now have been
increased by 3,600 square kilometers
An official with the National
Disaster Center at Rangsik University recently told an American Chamber of
Commerce Thailand luncheon that weather patterns, and the current low levels of
water being held in the dams at present would indicate there will probably be
no flood.
However, construction crews are
racing the clock. Work on the Sudhrat Nakon park is scheduled to be finished by
November, well into the rainy season. Asia Foundation said a proposed extensive
program of flood relief worth Bt350 billion US$11.7 billion was being
criticized for having been hastily developed and doesn’t have clear terms of
reference. As with any major public construction project in Thailand, the plan
has also come under the scrutiny of the National Anti -Corruption Commission.
Italthai, the country’s major
construction company, has brought in workers and materiel from international
sources in a major effort to raise dykes. In particular, the government efforts
have been concentrated on the Ayutthaya plain area, where eight industrial
estates were inundated by three meters of floodwaters for months, destroying
thousands of brand-new cars, electronic equipment and hundreds of millions of
dollars of factory infrastructure built to produce the manufactures.
Two main concerns addressed by
the flood recovery plan are restoring economic losses in flood-affected
provinces and assuring international industrial enterprises operating in
flood-prone areas. To restore confidence with foreign investors, the government
has allocated a large amount of funding to industrial owners to build dykes to
protect the industrial zone from future flooding and has held large seminars
with investors to discuss how the government’s plan will protect businesses.
Despite the government’s efforts, many industrial leaders have also expressed
frustration with the lack of information from the government.
So it looks like Thailand will
probably skate through in 2012. However, one Thai businessman warned, given
weather patterns for this year, it should be okay. But if the skies empty again
like they did when Nock Ten came over the region and stayed for days, the
government is still behind the curve.
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programmes. Many thanks for visiting www.yourvietnamexpert.com and/or contacting us at contact@yourvietnamexpert.com
No comments:
Post a Comment