Most
visitors to Myanmar these days limit their trip to Yangon.
They rarely make the five-hour trip to Nay
Pyi Daw, the new upcountry capital. As a parliamentary delegation from Asean
governments seeking to make contact with opposition legislators, we embark on
the road trip to the Burmese generals' version of Brasilia, not really knowing
what we'll find at the end of the journey.
Before we leave Yangon, however, we meet with
members of Generation 88, people now in their forties who led the student uprising
of 1988. Our meeting takes place against the background of fast-moving
developments in Burmese politics: the triumphant European tour of Aung San Suu
Kyi; the release of more political prisoners; and the opening session of
parliament on July 4. There is a widespread sense that the country is
undergoing momentous change.
Having spent a large part of the last 20
years in jail, the Generation 88 leaders are hardened activists who know the
mentality of the military regime. So it is a bit of a surprise when one of
them, Ko Ko Gyi, says that the country's political opening is
"irreversible". "Of course," he clarifies, "there
might be setbacks, but the military knows it is in their interest to reform.
They know they can't go on like this."
How do they plan to engage with the current
reform process? "We will mobilise different sectors around legitimate
demands such as wages," says Ko Ko Gyi, "but we also want to make
sure that things are resolved within the framework of the current reform process."
And yes, they plan to constitute themselves as a party and field candidates in
the elections of 2015.
The meeting with Generation 88 provides much
food for reflection during the trip to Nay Pyi Daw. Some of us had expected
architecture and planning in the fascist style, but what we found bordered on
the surreal. The place is linked by roads as wide as 18 lanes. The road leading
to the parliament building, for instance, is wide enough for a jumbo jet to
land on.
A great deal of empty space separates
imposing government buildings, upscale shopping malls, and pricey hotels said
to be run by cronies of the top generals. These structures coexist with
miserable settlements of the poor found near construction sites, who provide
the workforce for ongoing projects.
Perhaps the most imposing structure is the
Uppatasanti Buddhist pagoda, one of the tallest and largest of its kind in the
world. The pagoda has a spire coated with 32 tonnes of gold, while its
interior, patterned after Istanbul's famous blue mosque, boasts pillars of
jade. All in all, Nay Pyi Daw is, as one member of our delegation notes wryly,
"a bizarre display of military intelligence".
That this country is still far from being a
democracy is something we are reminded of when soldiers barred us from visiting
the parliament building. We are not stopped, however, when we visit the
residential quarters of the opposition members of parliament, which they occupy
during the seven months the body is in session. These are one-room habitations
that share communal toilets. The freshly laid barbed wire on the walls
surrounding the compound gives the overall impression, as one member of our
delegation remarks, of a "concentration camp".
Since we cannot go to the parliament, MPs
belonging to parties representing ethnic minorities and the National League for
Democracy (NLD) join us in meetings at a restaurant in one of the capital's two
malls. The session with the MPs representing the ethnic minorities reveals an
upbeat mood. The MPs assure us that they belong to the opposition, though one
of them says that only 70 per cent of them can be counted on to be with the
opposition, the rest being influenced by the military.
How to work with the ethnic minority parties
and organisations will be one of the biggest challenges confronting the NLD.
Myanmar has about 135 different ethnic groups scattered in seven states and
regions, some of them with armed groups that have been battling the military
regime for decades. Will Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD succeed in promoting by
peaceful means a comprehensive agreement that has eluded the military?
The Kachins have been dissatisfied with her
failure to condemn the military's recent offensive against them. Even more
criticism greeted her statement during her European tour that she was unsure
whether the Muslim Rohingyas who were victims of ethnic clashes in Rakhine
state, were actually Burmese nationals. Clearly, Suu Kyi will have to tread
carefully here, reassuring the country's minorities that she's on their side
while not giving the military the opportunity to paint her as endangering
national unity.
When we meet members of the NLD parliamentary
delegation the next evening, they warmly thank us for the support given by the
Asean Inter-parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC) during the years that the
regime tried to crush them. We, in turn, express our admiration for their
perseverance in opposing the military for over 20 years - ever since the NLD
was prevented from taking power after its landslide victory at the polls in
1990. The eight MPs who attend the dinner have a total of over 70 years in jail
between them.
Unlike the meeting with the MPs representing
ethnic minorities, when many expressed optimism about the future, the NLD
legislators are cautious. We are told to keep things in perspective, that the
NLD has only 43 seats and the opposition has at most 168 seats in the
600-member parliament.
One of them, U Win Htein, tells us that the
regime is beginning to "tighten the screws on us". He cites the
government's new requirement that the NLD must first inform the government
before it establishes an office in any locality, its recent decree requiring
parties to account for expenditures in the by-elections in April, and a recent
lower court decision awarding half of Suu Kyi's family property to her
estranged brother, Aung San Oo - a naturalized American who, as a foreign
citizen, is forbidden by law from owning property. The regime, the NLD MPs say,
has also made much of the Lady's initial refusal to swear to
"respect" the 2008 constitution and her constant use of the name
Burma instead of Myanmar.
Caution is also the mood communicated by NLD
senior statesman U Tin Oo, head of the Central Convening Committee of the
party, whom we visit at NLD headquarters in Yangon. He tells us, "Note
carefully that Suu Kyi has said she can work with President U Thein Sein but
she is not sure she can work with the government." He sees the NLD's
future as resting on its winning over the younger generation. He also tells us
that while the NLD welcomes foreign investors, projects "will have to be
transparent and be clearly beneficial for the masses and not simply for
businessmen".
It might be rash to make a judgement after a
three-day-visit, but the country has definitely taken steps toward democracy.
These are baby steps, and "democratisation" may not be the right word
for the current process. Power continues to be tightly concentrated in the
military, the official expression of this being the 11-member National Defence
and Security Council. Although President U Thein Sein and reformers within the
military currently hold the upper hand vis-a-vis hardliners, their position
continues to depend on the man behind the scenes, the ageing dictator Than
Shwe.
The momentum for reform is clearly gathering
force, but it is not irreversible. Right now the regime is on good behaviour,
eager not to do anything that might derail its assumption of the chairmanship
of Asean in 2014, which will complete Myanmar's re-entry into the ranks of
legitimate governments. The real test will come during the elections of 2015,
when the NLD is expected to coast to victory if the elections are free and
fair. Will the regime allow the NLD and its allies to assume power, or will it
panic as in 1990?
Finally, Aung San Suu Kyi and the democratic
forces will need all the support they can get from the outside world as they
negotiate the swirling political currents over the next few years in their
terribly challenging task of steering Myanmar toward genuine electoral
democracy.
Walden Bello
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