Next week US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta will visit Beijing to
meet with senior Chinese military officials. The trip marks his first visit to
China as Pentagon chief, and most observers agree that the two sides have some
contentious issues to discuss.
A lot of media speculation has
focused on the likelihood that talks will cover different approaches to the
handling of territorial claims in the South China Sea. It is probable that the
disputes will top the discussion agenda.
China has long preferred to
peacefully discuss competing claims on a bilateral basis without outside
interference. But Washington junked its neutral position toward the issue in
July 2010 (purportedly at the request of one of China's neighbours), and expressed
a preference for a "multilateral" remedy to the disputes. Washington
even proclaimed that it has a "national interest" in the South China
Sea. The two sides remain at loggerheads over the issue.
The rising tensions between Japan
and China over the Diaoyu Islands could also be discussed. The
"nationalisation" of the Diaoyu Islands by the Japanese government
has inflamed passions on the Chinese mainland and Taiwan both. Moreover, a wide
range of pressing international problems, including piracy (Beijing and
Washington plan to conduct anti-piracy sea drills), terrorism and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to name just a few, could find
their way into the talks.
In addition to these topics,
there is a potentially explosive issue that could soar to the top of the
meeting's agenda, namely, US arms sales to Taiwan. As Chen Bingde, the chief of
the general staff of the People's Liberation Army, said last year, US arms
sales to Taiwan remain the "main source" of friction in Sino-US relations.
Relations between the Chinese
mainland and Taiwan are at their best. The two sides have inked a free trade
pact, opened direct flights between major cities and signed an agreement
enabling thousands of mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. More than 1 million
Taiwan compatriots now live on the mainland. There is talk of a peace
agreement. A declaration of "Taiwan independence" is out of the
question, and nothing else could spark a conflict.
In fact, Beijing has long pledged
to work for peaceful reunification of China. And Deng Xiaoping reportedly said
the country could even wait "a millennium" to achieve this goal.
Despite the remarkable
improvements in cross-Straits relations, some US politicians have sought to
turn Taiwan into a "political football" to bash the incumbent US
president. Although Washington has sold more than US$12 billion worth of arms
to Taiwan in the past two years (comparable or more than any period in the
history of US-Taiwan unofficial relations), these politicians make the wild
claim that the president has somehow "abandoned" Taiwan. They have
conducted a series of congressional hearings to "investigate" such
claims and used them as a platform to accuse the president of "cozying up
to Beijing with a wink and a nod". The highly charged partisan atmosphere
of these hearings is now being matched by the official statements released by
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign.
The Romney campaign website says:
"We should be coordinating with Taiwan to determine its military needs and
supplying them with adequate aircraft and other military platforms." A
Romney aide elaborated on this point, explaining that "[Massachusetts]
Governor Romney strongly believes that we should sell Taiwan those [F-16 C/D]
air fighters". He added that the sale of advanced warplanes would
"increase American jobs".
In other words, the Romney
campaign views arms sales to Taiwan as an "economic stimulus plan".
Surprisingly, this is no longer a "fringe" position in American
politics. Economic considerations were emphasised in petitions submitted to the
president that called for the approval of the F-16 C/D warplane sale (47 US
Senators and 181 members of the US House of Representatives signed petitions
urging approval of the sale). Opinion pieces in major American newspapers have
also touted the financial benefits of arms sales to Taiwan.
Much of the election rhetoric
being peddled by the Romney campaign must be dismissed as little more than
bluff and bluster. One way or another, the "China issue" often seems
to find its way into election-year politics, and proposals calling for major
changes in US policy are subsequently forgotten after the voters go to the
polls. For example, former US president Ronald Reagan threatened to
"re-establish" official relations with Taiwan and sell the island a
new warplane (the FX fighter) during his 1980 presidential bid. But he did not
follow through on either of these campaign promises.
Too much ink has already been
spilled analyzing the explanations Washington has proffered to justify
continued arms sales to Taiwan, and why the mainland has consistently opposed
such sales. Suffice it to say the two countries hold very different views on
the matter and neither will budge from its respective position.
But it is noteworthy that the US
government has never rationalised arms sales to Taiwan as part of a "jobs
package". And Panetta's hosts in Beijing will probably remind him that
China would not respond well to such a change in US policy.
To be sure, there have been many
twists and turns in Sino-American relations during the past decades, and this
important relationship will continue to confront many challenges in the coming
years. Given the stakes involved, both countries should take steps to avoid
manufacturing crises for domestic political gains.
Therefore, the US and China
should use the occasion of Panetta's visit to explore ways to reduce tensions
and promote cooperation.
Although there are numerous areas
of disagreement, there are also many areas of common ground that can help
Washington and Beijing promote peace, prosperity and stability on a regional
and global basis.
The author is a professor of political science and director of Graduate
Programme in Global Studies at Missouri State University, US.
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