KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak faces
a tricky challenge as the deadline approaches for holding fresh elections here:
He remains relatively popular in much of the country—but his government is less
so.
Mr. Najib has continued to fare
well in voter surveys this year, with many residents saying they believe his
reform efforts—including a promise to repeal an unpopular law criminalizing
speech with a "seditious tendency"—are well-intentioned.
But voters also tell pollsters
they are dissatisfied overall with the coalition government led by the United
Malays National Organization, which has governed Malaysia since independence
from Britain in 1957. Many voters have indicated they want more radical change,
notably to rein in corruption and make the economy more competitive.
That disconnect between voters'
views of Mr. Najib and of his ruling coalition complicates the prime minister's
decision on when to call the next election, which by law must be held by the
first part of next year. The vote—whose timing has been the subject of heated
popular debate for months—is widely expected to be the most competitive in
Malaysia's history, following a 2008 election in which opposition leader Anwar
Ibrahim guided a multiethnic opposition alliance to its best performance in
years.
Many analysts believe the date
could be announced as early as September, after the government unveils its next
budget, but Mr. Najib's team has declined to say.
He can call a vote soon and hope
Malaysians will bet on him to push his coalition to back tougher reforms, in a
fresh term or he can hold out longer and hope his government's overall ratings
improve. But waiting has an added risk: Some analysts expect Malaysia's economy
to weaken amid slowing global demand.
A June survey by local research
organization the Merdeka Center found 64% of voters satisfied with Mr. Najib's
performance more than three years after he assumed power. Although down
slightly from a few months ago, that is far higher than his 45% rating just
after taking office. But only 42% were happy with his government, with 44%
dissatisfied or angry. Many expressed concern over the economic outlook.
Other surveys this year have also
found fairly strong backing for Mr. Najib, even as public criticism of his
government has intensified. Criticism boiled over in an April protest in
downtown Kuala Lumpur by tens of thousands of people calling for cleaner
elections. It ended with the police bringing in water cannons and tear gas.
"Najib all around comes
across positively, but the party he controls alienates" people, said
Ibrahim Suffian, program director at the Merdeka Center. Although surveys show
he "is effective as an individual" and articulates his policies well,
"on Election Day, they're not voting for Najib, they're voting for the
party."
Mr. Najib faced some criticism of
his own for the handling of the April protests. But he avoids harsher
condemnation largely by positioning himself as a backer of changes sought
especially by younger Malaysians—including repeal of the Sedition Act a
publications act that gives the government wide-ranging powers over the issuing
of licenses to print. He has offered to modify a decades-old affirmative-action
program for the majority ethnic-Malay population and liberalize parts of the
economy to attract more foreign investors. He has also shown up at rock
concerts and worked to build up a following on Twitter.
"Since taking office in
2009, the prime minister has implemented bold policies to transform the
economy, improve the delivery of government services and expand civil
liberties," a government representative said.
Mr. Najib's efforts haven't gone
as far as many activists would like, though, as more conservative elements of
his UMNO party resist.
"I think Najib has tried
hard to be a good leader," said Chris Eng, head of research in the
Investment Management Division at Etiqa, an insurance arm of Malaysia's largest
lender by assets, Maybank. "It is not easy to change the culture of the
government overnight and there are still many within the government [and] ruling
political body that are still resistant to recommendations of change by
Najib."
Even so, he said, "I would
personally like to see Najib take the bull by its horns" and push more
politically painful policies—such as reducing costly state subsidies for fuel
and other products and more aggressively attacking corruption.
Mr. Najib's government has
unveiled big spending programs that critics call vote buying, including about
$700 million in payouts for civil servants and retired government workers, with
other sweeteners expected when he unveils the next budget in September.
One risk, his supporters say, is
that Mr. Najib's coalition could eventually win, but with a narrow enough
result that UMNO elders seek to replace him. Mr. Ibrahim at the Merdeka Center
says he believes the coalition will do no better than in the last election,
when it lost its accustomed two-thirds parliamentary majority.
"That's why they keep
postponing the vote," he said.
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