VietNamNet Bridge – The last months of year are always the time
for the capital mobilization channels to activate. However, things are quite
different this year. Experts still keep hesitant to give predictions about the
most lucrative investment modes.
Dr Le Tham Duong, Dean of the
Business Administration Faculty of the HCM City Banking University, said of the
three most popular investment channels – real estate, gold and securities, he
still cannot see any really good investment channel for now.
Investment activities quiet
Duong believes that the stock and
real estate markets would not prosper in 2012, once the national economy is
still in big difficulties. Therefore, investors still cannot earn money from
the two markets, except the worldly wise ones.
Meanwhile, it is too risky to
inject money in gold, since the domestic gold price has become overly high and
even higher by 2-3 million dong per tael in comparison with the world’s price.
The world’s gold price proves to
be unpredictable. It is also impossible to predict the domestic price, because
the Vietnamese market is believed to be heavily influenced by speculation
activities.
Meanwhile, Dr Dinh The Hien,
Director of the Institute for Informatics Research and Applied Economics,
thinks that the stock index may increase again towards the end of the year.
However, he said, though the
national economy has gradually recovered, it is still not enough to attract
foreign investment capital. Meanwhile, the capital supply from domestic sources
remains limited, since a high proportion of capital has got stuck at unsold
real estate projects, while banks still keep very cautious in disbursement.
Regarding the “commodities” on
the stock market, bank shares, after a period of increasing sharply in prices,
have become less attractive, while very few enterprises have promised high
profit growth. As such, the stock market still lacks “valuable commodities,”
which are the shares of the big enterprises.
Once the stock market cannot
offer attractive “commodities” to lure big investors, it is impossible to
create a new cash flow to the market. Therefore, analysts have every reason to
believe that the VN Index would exceed the 500 point threshold.
It is very likely that the VN
Index would hover around 450 points by the end of the year.
The weak demand and the capital
shortage both are also the reasons behind the real estate freezing. Very few
transactions have been carried out, which, according to Dr Nguyen Van Thuan
from the HCM City Open University, is because investors feel insecure about the
market, since they do not know about the actual values of properties.
Preserving capital – the top
priority for now
Analysts all believe that in the
current circumstances, when uncertainties still exist in the national economy,
it would be better for investors to think of the measures to preserve their
capital, rather than trying to seek the investment channels which promise high
profits.
Dr Nguyen Van Thuan said keeping
foreign currencies and making deposits at banks could be seen as the best choice
for now to preserve one’s assets.
However, keeping dollars proves
to be not the choice of the majority of people, since the State bank has vowed
not to devaluate the local currency by more than three percent this year. The
stabilized exchange rate means no profit for investors.
Depositing dong at banks proves
to be a better choice, if investors just need to keep the capital intact while
waiting for new investment opportunities. The current deposit interest rates in
Vietnam are really more attractive than in other countries. Depositors can
enjoy the interest rate of nine percent per annum for short term deposits and
11-12 percent per annum for longer term deposits.
Compiled by Thu Uyen
Business & Investment Opportunities
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