Tension between Japan and China has flared up yet again after Japan
announced a plan to buy several disputed islands.
Only last year, the two neighbors
were embroiled in another diplomatic feud after Japanese authorities arrested
and detained a Chinese fishing captain accused of entering the waters of the
East China Sea disputed area.
Considering the Chinese people’s
emotional reaction and the response of the two governments to the recent
problem of sovereignty — questions and concerns abound as to whether the
dispute will trigger an open war between Japan and China.
Some countries, including the
United States, have predicted the dispute will lead to the worst scenario such
as open war or “Asian War” (Kompas, Sept. 16, 2012).
Historically, relations between
Japan and China fluctuate. The history of Japanese imperialism in China in the
past remains a justification for China to put pressure on Japan.
In addition, trade issues and
border conflicts have markedly affected their up and down bilateral ties.
Disputes between the two nations over the East China Sea date back to 1964 when
the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East reported
potential oil reserves under the territory’s waters.
Despite the disputes, the two are
economically dependent on each other. This interdependence is evident in the
trade volume between them, which continues to increase.
China tops Japan’s export
markets, and vice versa Japan is the fourth export destination of China, based
on JETRO trade data, Japan’s total trade with China increased
by 14.3 percent or US$344.9
million in February 2012. Imports from China soared by 20 percent or $183.4
million while Japan’s exports to China rose by 8.3 percent or $161.5 million.
In recent years, Japanese aid to
China has continued to dwindle, the assistance shows “something” behind their
bilateral ties. As we know, China is an emerging economy; therefore it no
longer deserves foreign aid.
This fact raises two questions: why
does the Chinese government keep accepting Japanese foreign aid and why does
Japan continue to offer assistance to China, when in fact, the two are rivals
in the pursuit of regional leadership and, of course, in the economic sector?
Another interesting phenomenon is
the growing number of Chinese workers employed in Japan. Data from 2009
revealed that the number of Chinese migrant workers in Japan stood at 250,000
people or half of the country’s migrant workers population.
This suggests the Japanese economy
has a high dependence on Chinese labor. Moreover, the Japanese population is
facing the phenomenon of an inverted pyramid with the rising growth of aging
society.
The two countries face
complicated issues at home. China, as the world’s most populous country, has to
tackle the issues of high economic inequality, long-standing “rebellion” in
Tibet and Taiwan, and the prospects of peace in Korean Peninsula in which China
is expected to play a key role in the conflict settlement.
On the other hand, Japan is
facing an economic slowdown, an aging society and the unabated impacts of the
tsunami last year.
The problems are exacerbated by
political tension resulting from the ruling party DJP’s difficulties in
implementing its manifesto that relates to the displacement of the US base in
Futenma as part of an effort to review the Japan-US security treaty.
The accumulation of these
domestic problems seems to be what is halting Japan and China from waging open
war.
Japan and China share a mutual
interest in maintaining regional security and stability, particularly their
trade routes. Therefore a war between the two nations will do more harm than
good.
Realizing its stagnant economy
and considering China’s massive economic growth, Japan has no other choice but
to “behave well” to keep its influence in the region intact.
The involvement of the two
countries in the ASEAN cooperation forum of economy and security (ARF), for
example, demonstrates their effort to maintain their “influence” and
“leadership” in the political-economic architecture and security in the region.
Therefore, ASEAN as a regional
institution, which has a strategic value for both countries, can play the role
of mediator to reduce tensions between the two giants. If ASEAN can mediate
settlement of conflict between Japan and China, the stability of the East Asia
region will last.
Asra Virgianita, Yokohama, Japan
Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Healthcare and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN. Since we are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, you may contact us at: sbc.pte@gmail.com, provisionally. Many thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment