On October 15 the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF) signed a peace framework to end a four-decade conflict and build
an autonomous region in Mindanao, to be called Bangsamoro.
Early in his term, President
Benigno Aquino III declared that his administration's formula for ending the
violence in Southern Philippines is to find not just a political settlement,
but also to ensure that Mindanao's economy would grow to a level that its
people could escape the scarcity that gave birth to the secessionist cause.
The signing was witnessed by
foreign dignitaries led by Prime Minister Najib Razak of Malaysia, which played
host to the talks since 2001. While details of the roadmap plan - such as power
and wealth distribution, transitional arrangements, and decommissioning of MILF
forces - have yet to be established, the signing has significant implications
for the Philippines' Asean neighbours.
Malaysia's mediating role
Malaysia stands to gain from the
framework agreement between the MILF and the Philippine government which Kuala
Lumpur had facilitated for over a decade, with three prime ministers, including
Najib, overseeing the negotiations. The signing of the Bangsamoro framework
agreement reinforced Prime Minister Najib's international credentials and
augmented Malaysia's position as promoter of peace and stability in Southeast
Asia.
Similarly, the prospect of peace
finally coming to Mindanao may eventually slow the influx of illegal immigrants
through Sabah in East Malaysia. For years, the rising social, economic and
security problems in Malaysia have been blamed on the illegal settlers. Worse,
the Malaysian government was accused of offering citizenship to them to secure
votes. Ahead of the Malaysian elections by 2013, Prime Minister Najib has set
up a royal commission of inquiry to investigate and tackle the problem.
Southern Philippines, Southern
Thailand, Aceh
Further afield Thailand also
faces its own perennial insurgency in its three southernmost provinces
adjoining Malaysia. A successful peace in the Philippines, however, could give
its Thai counterpart a morale boost. Yet there are key differences between the
two, which at this point, may make it challenging to employ Manila's strategies
in southern Thailand. Firstly, critics of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra
observed that she has no grasp of the situation in the South and that her
exiled brother Thaksin is the real decision-maker.
Secondly, the southern insurgents
in Thailand do not have any apparent leader with whom the government can
negotiate, in contrast to the MILF that has a clear leadership structure with
which the Aquino administration held face-to-face talks. Thirdly, the Thai
government has rejected most assistance from outsiders, which was crucial and
played an important role in the Philippine situation.
Indonesia has been at the
forefront in supporting the peace initiatives and in the negotiations. This
comes as no surprise as the country has also faced insurgencies in several of
its provinces, especially in Aceh and the former province of East Timor, which
gained independence in 2002. Its Memorandum of Understanding with the Free Aceh
Movement (GAM) has become an inspiration for the Framework in Mindanao since it
was signed in 2005.
Both conflicts are in some ways
similar. Much like in Aceh, the southern Philippines became an area of conflict
when the Moros launched an armed struggle for their ancestral homeland in the
1960s. Natural resources were controlled by a few elites and the local
population did not benefit at all from them; south Mindanao remained one of the
poorest and most underdeveloped regions in the Philippines.
Furthermore, prior to this latest
accord, Indonesia has facilitated the peace process between the Philippine
government and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), and likewise, had
sent an observer group to participate in the International Monitoring Team
agreed by both the parties.
Beyond the framework
Against the backdrop of its
social problems, Mindanao is endowed with rich natural resources, highly
diverse cultures, and a strategic location in a complex and rapidly growing
region. Since 1994, trade and investment cooperation between Brunei Darussalam,
Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines in the East Asean Growth Area (EAGA)
has been on-going. With the signing of the Framework Agreement, economists
predict EAGA will push for more socio-economic cooperation. For example,
through a Philippines-Malaysia joint committee, the two Asean states will draw
up collaborative projects focusing on madrasah education, halal industry,
tourism, Islamic banking, and university student exchanges among others.
The Bangsamoro Framework
Agreement is not the final step of the peace process. Rather, it signals a new
phase by which the Manila government and the MILF can now work as partners in
the implementation of its provision not only for the people of the Philippines
but also for the Asean region.
Ava Patricia C Avila
Business & Investment Opportunities
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