The ASEAN and East Asia summits ended with little progress having been
made on the bloc's most contentious issues.
Outgoing Chinese Premier Wen
Jiabao returned to Beijing this week office after disappointing ASEAN and East
Asia summits that failed to live-up to years of diplomatic posturing and
positioning, designed to protect his country’s territorial ambitions in the
South China Sea.
The pro-Beijing lobby will no
doubt praise his efforts in Cambodia where China successfully thwarted attempts
by Southeast Asian countries to unite on the South China Sea issue.
But behind closed doors the
honest power-brokers will be forced to admit that at best Beijing achieved a
year-long stalemate before a significant political shift within the Association
of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which will not be to its liking.
Wen’s departure also signaled an
ignoble end to Cambodia’s controversial year as chair of ASEAN, marked by Prime
Minister Hun Sen’s extraordinary efforts to please Beijing that exposed deep
and acrimonious divisions within the 10-member bloc.
China has invested heavily in
Cambodia with Chinese companies investing $8.2 billion in the poverty-stricken
country since 2006 alone, not to mention the billions in aids and soft loans
that Beijing has given to Hun Sen’s government with no strings attached.
Such magnanimity is rare but
seemed questionable over the last six months with China leaning on Phnom Penh
to protect Beijing’s interests within ASEAN on the thorny issue of the Spratly
and Paracel islands.
China claims almost the entire
resource rich South China Sea, including the Paracel islands, which are also
claimed by Vietnam. The Spratly Islands and the sea lanes of communications,
where half the world’s trade passes, are claimed in whole or in part by China,
Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and the Philippines.
From the outset Cambodia tried to
paper over the cracks that first appeared at an ASEAN summit in July by
publicly announcing that Southeast Asian delegates had early on unanimously
agreed to not “internationalize” the festering dispute.
However, the Philippines
immediately refuted the claim saying it held an inherent right to defend its
interests. Sources also said Vietnam was upset by the statement and was
thoroughly annoyed with Cambodia for attempting the maneuver, while Malaysia
and Brunei stayed coy.
Comments from the Australian
Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who said there “was a difference in emphasis and
views” on the issue, were also insightful.
China does not want the dispute
heard before an international court and insists that negotiations with members
of ASEAN be held on a bilateral basis through a legally-binding Code of Conduct
(COC), which has been discussed for the last decade. Currently, a preliminary,
non-legally binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China
Sea is in place.
The COC would be legally binding
and would govern tensions between the claimants to the South China Sea while the
parties conduct further negotiations aimed at reaching final agreements on the
sovereignty issues.
The Philippines and Vietnam,
however, want ASEAN to present a united front to China in multilateral
negotiations, which would also suit the interests of the two other ASEAN
claimants, Malaysia and Brunei.
It remains unlikely that small
countries like Brunei would ever be in a diplomatic position to negotiate with
China squarely over territorial claims.
As the summit ended it appeared
that, at least for the time being, neither China nor the Philippines and
Vietnam China would not have its way in terms of negotiating the various
disputes. Furthermore, Cambodia’s advocacy of China’s position again led to charges
that Phnom Penh was giving China’s interests priority over those of the ASEAN
bloc.
But as ASEAN turns on an annual
basis, so does its agenda. Brunei will be the next chair of ASEAN and the new
ASEAN Secretary-General, Le Luong Minh, is from Vietnam, while Thailand – seen
as fairly neutral in the dispute – has been elected as country coordinator on
the issue.
This represents a significant
political shift within the bloc — away from the Cambodian attempt to lead a
pro-China lobby and curry favor with Beijing — towards ASEAN members with
stakes in the dispute.
A united ASEAN approach to China
is now a distinct possibility, leaving Wen Jiabao with the task of trying to
put the best face on the issue.
He said China had stood by
Cambodia in order to promote Asian unity adding that China and ASEAN had “the
wisdom and capability” to handle the dispute and territorial claims in the
South China Sea, also known as the West Philippine Sea and the East Sea in
Vietnam, without extra-regional intervention.
“Handling differences and
conflicts in the ASEAN way, which is to put aside disputes and enhance
consensus, is an effective guarantee for promoting cooperation,” he said.
He was ably supported by a
foreign ministry spokesman who insisted that Cambodia’s stance as chair of
ASEAN had not damaged unity within the group, going so far as to claim,
erroneously, that, “Cambodia’s efforts are to safeguard ASEAN.”
The East Asia summit comprises
the 10 nations of ASEAN and leaders of China, the U.S., Japan, South Korea,
Russia, India, Australia and New Zealand.
The developments during the
summit where closely monitored by the U.S. delegation that was led this year by
President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Obama became the
first sitting U.S. president to visit Cambodia.
The United States has been vying
with China for influence in Southeast Asia – a region that is experiencing
unprecedented growth and making the most of its military strategic positioning
– even before Washington announced its famous “pivot” or “rebalancing” back
into the region late last year.
Maritime security was raised by
Obama whose visit was also part of a whistle-stop tour of Burma, Thailand and
Cambodia, less than two weeks after winning a second term as president.
As U.S. delegates focused on
initiatives including food security, the global economy and weapons
nonproliferation, Obama also championed human rights in “tense” talks with Hun
Sen.
Obama pressed Hun Sen on human
rights for nearly the entire meeting with the Cambodian leader, warning that
deeper engagement with the U.S. would require an improvement in Cambodia’s
record on these issues. Hun Sen, in turn, insisted that no political prisoners
were being held in this country, despite a recent report by Human Rights Watch
which detailed 300 deaths it claimed had been politically motivated.
“In particular, I would say the
need for them to move toward elections that are fair and free, the need for an
independent election commission associated with those elections, the need to
allow for the release of political prisoners and for opposition parties to be
able to operate,” U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes said of
Obama’s meeting at a later briefing.
The two summits were not without
their small success, however. ASEAN did finalize its declaration on human
rights, for example, while also approving the creation of a land mine clearing
center and pushing ahead with trade pacts.
However, leaders largely side-stepped
the most contentious issues facing the bloc, not only the South China Sea but
also Laos’ plans to dam the mainstream of the Mekong River and efforts to forge an Integrated Economic
Community – based in part on the EU model – by 2015.
It was a difficult year for
ASEAN, a group forged out of mutual interests and one that prides itself on
non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs.
In the Cambodian camp, the relief
that its year as chair is over was palpable, with Hun Sen shedding a tear at
the final press conference, saying he just wanted to go home to be his wife.
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