World attention is understandably focused on the violence in the Middle
East but it is also important to take a closer look at President Barack Obama’s
re-engagement with Asia and the Sino-American jostling for power and influence
in the region.
America’s military presence looms
large over Asia, reassuring many who worry about China’s rising military
expenditure and new assertiveness over territorial claims in the South and East
China Seas.
Across Asia there is a strong
consensus that the US "pivot" to Asia announced last year is designed
to contain a rising China.
Washington insists its new policy
is not related to China’s growing power or a permanent return to military bases
of the past, but it has increased its military presence in the Philippines and
other areas near vital sea lanes in the South China Sea.
Most Asians welcome America’s
renewed interest — and increased military presence — in the region. But many
are also unwilling to get entangled in a dangerous tug-of-war between the
world’s two most important powers.
First of all, good relations
between the world’s first and second largest economies are critically important
for Asian stability as well as global peace. Second, while they may like
America’s warm military embrace, most Asian countries depend hugely on China
for markets, especially for their commodity exports and for investments.
Third, while willing to discuss,
consult and cooperate with their partners, the 10 countries of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) want to ensure their "centrality"
in the region.
In other words, America, China,
Russia and even Europe are welcome to attend meetings and sign up for trade
pacts. But it is Asean that intends to stay in the driving seat, controlling
the region’s future direction.
For evidence of the new power
play in Asia, look no further than President Obama’s much-publicised visit to
Myanmar and the confusion and bad blood on show at the Asean and East Asia
summit meetings just held in Cambodia.
The US leader’s trip was rightly
viewed in the region as a validation of Asia’s strategic importance. But Obama
also came quickly face-to-face with the tough realities of what it will take to
counter China’s influence in the region.
Establishing a bigger, more influential
presence in the Asia-Pacific region has long been an Obama objective, a goal
that analysts say is driven by 21st-century geopolitical considerations and by
the Hawaiian-born president’s own self-identity as the first Pacific president.
Just by making the trip — and by
making it his first after his re-election — Obama made a point about the
importance the US attaches to the region. He was greeted by large crowds
chanting his name in Thailand and in Myanmar. But the US leader received a more
muted reception in neighbouring Cambodia, a staunch ally of China.
The US president’s participation
in the annual summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Phnom Penh and the larger
East Asia Summit were another strong indication of US intentions to play a
bigger role in the region.
But it was not all plain sailing
for America. Underlining their determination to steer the future of the region,
Asean leaders launched a proposal for a new trade bloc, to be known as the
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) which is seen as a rival to
a US trade initiative to establish an 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership
(TPP), which excludes China.
Not surprisingly, China has
voiced strong support for the RCEP initiative which would include Asean
countries plus six nations that have free-trade agreements with the
association: Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. The
TPP, meanwhile, is an economic element in US policy to contain China.
But it was not easy for China
either. Significantly China also came in for its share of grilling over its
hard-line stance in disputes with four Southeast Asian countries over ownership
of islands in the South China Sea. China’s sovereignty claims over the stretch
of water off its south coast and to the east of mainland Southeast Asia set it
directly against US allies Vietnam and the Philippines, while Brunei, Taiwan
and Malaysia also lay claim to parts.
Cambodia, the host of the
summits, insisted at one point that its members, by consensus, did not want the
South China Sea issue to be “internationalised” — meaning that the US and other
countries with interests in the security of the sea, one of the world’s busiest
trade routes, would have no say in the rules pertaining to the body of water.
This was fiercely opposed by the
Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Vietnam. Asean has now said it
wants to soon start formal talks with China on a code of conduct that would
reduce the risk of conflict over the sea. China has balked at such urgency,
however.
Obama urged Asian leaders to
reduce tensions in the South China Sea and other disputed territory, but
stopped short of firmly backing allies Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam in
their disputes with China. Possibly not wanting to further antagonise China in
the midst of its once-in-a-generation leadership change, he steered clear of
the kind of tough public rhetoric he used against Beijing during his last Asia
tour a year ago.
At stake is control over what are
believed to be significant reserves of oil and gas. Estimates for proven and
undiscovered oil reserves in the entire sea range from 28 billion to as high as
213 billion barrels of oil, according to the US Energy Information
Administration.
The strains within Asean that
were apparent in Cambodia illustrate the difficulty of forging a Southeast
Asian consensus over how to deal with an increasingly assertive China. They
also showcase how — if left unchecked — Sino-American rivalries risk escalating
tensions and divisions in the region.
Shada Islam
Business & Investment Opportunities
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