For the US, its "pivot" to Asia is all about jobs and bringing
some of those jobs from China back to America.
The United States’ pivot to Asia
is not merely the product of the Obama Administration but also one that is
shared on some level by the president’s challenger, the former Massachusetts
governor, Mitt Romney.
Driven largely by economics and
the region as a “key driver in global politics,” as expressed by US State
Secretary Hillary Clinton, the pivot remains one of the few bipartisan issues
in Washington, DC.
However, the question that seems
to be on everyone’s mind is what America’s pivot means, not only to interested
Asian states but to Americans themselves. The re-allocation of military
resources to the Western Pacific is unlikely to garner much in the way of wide
public, and therefore political support, given a decade of conflict abroad.
Where China is concerned, bringing jobs back to the US is typically the subject
line.
Presidential Rhetoric
It must be said that although
America’s Asian foreign policy is far-reaching—countries such as India,
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and North Korea are included—at its core is the question
of China: how will the US respond to China’s rise, what role will China play in
America’s future, and what role will America play in China’s future?
Unfortunately, the answers to these questions are speculative at best.
If there had been an opportunity
to answer them, it would have been at the third and final presidential debate,
which saw Obama and Romney respond to questions on national security and
foreign policy. As was expected, the subject of jobs and the economy was
routinely visited by the candidates.
In an election largely dominated
by domestic issues, it was not surprising that the candidates would rather
argue how they were best suited to bringing back jobs to America; and no
foreign policy issue tied more into jobs and jobs lost than China, which the
president referred to as both an adversary and potential partner.
Romney countered by suggesting
that China need not be an adversary of the US, and that it was possible for
both countries to work together. Nevertheless, this more optimistic approach is
premised on the notion that China plays by the same rules. The thought of
Romney, on his first day in office should he win the election, declaring China
a currency manipulator has raised fears of a trade war.
Given that this is an election
season, however, observers of the presidential debates are perhaps better off
not dwelling on what was said and by whom. Promises are easy to make and
difficult to keep, and only until after November will Americans and observers
abroad receive indication of the road the US intends to travel.
Challenges in Beijing
Not unlike the United States,
China is also experiencing a leadership transition. Following the 18th National
Congress of the Chinese Communist Party on November 8th, Xi Jinping will
replace Hu Jintao as the country’s newest president. Xi will not only inherit
the world’s newest economic giant, he will also inherit a country in need of
renovation.
While China’s rise over the past
decade has been nothing short of remarkable, it has not been without troubling
and serious problems and consequences. The divide between the rich and poor is
among the highest in the world. Environmental destruction, corruption, and
desire for better living conditions have also dominated the conversation.
Equally pressing (and with great
societal repercussions) is the demographic discrepancy between males and
females as a result of its “One Child” policy. Where a normal sex ratio is
considered to be 103 to 107 boys for 100 girls, China’s ratio is at a
staggering 117 boys for 100 girls. And none of this has yet to address the
eventual need for political reform.
Although China continues to burn
brightly and remains an economic giant, its attractiveness is marred by
domestic concerns. Its economy is beginning to slow and its people are
beginning to question their government. Mr. Xi, much like President Obama or Governor
Romney, will have his work cut out for him once he assumes his position.
The “Big Two”
All of this is to say that the US
foreign policy will ultimately be determined by the man in the office, and the
decisions made in Beijing, and vice versa. The incoming US president, be it
Obama in his second term or Romney in his first, must adapt to the reality
presented before him, as with Xi. Regardless, one can already get some idea of
the road ahead.
This much is true: if the US is
to succeed in Asia, it must do so by cooperating and collaborating with China.
However, this will also entail China to recognize and address US grievances,
such as theft of intellectual property and accusations of currency
manipulation.
American expectations are perhaps
that China will prove to be not only an invaluable trading partner but a
partner on the international stage. American access to Chinese and Asian
markets could serve to pull the US out of its economic slump. The question, of
course, is whether these new business opportunities will create jobs in the US
or Asia. If China ends up playing by the same rules as everyone else, Obama and
Romney would like to hope that Americans come out ahead.
As a consequence, however,
smaller Asian nations seeking to adjust their foreign policy around the US and
China are ultimately at the mercy of these two giants. Although America’s pivot
to Asia can be seen as a lifeline for some of these smaller Asian nations
seeking a counterbalance to China, they should be wary of expecting complete
and undivided American support. US interests in the region are largely economic
rather than security against China.
Of course, this is not to say
that the US does not share the same concerns as many of these countries with
regards to China; however, an American presence is not evidence of an American
intervention. What must be made clear—and what is undoubtedly understood by
regional state leaders—is that decisions made in Washington, DC, and Beijing
will only serve to address the needs of their respective citizens.
The politics of the Big Two will
dominate and dictate events throughout the Western Pacific and Asia as a whole.
For the US, the return to Asia is about jobs, and the pursuit in restoring
America’s economy may or may not align with the interests of China’s fearful
neighbors. Still, many of these small countries may find their interest best
served by aligning with the US, if only to provide some peace of mind at night.
Khanh Vu Duc
Business & Investment Opportunities
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