The hand-over of China's leadership to president-in-waiting Xi Jinping
has raised the prospects of a more reformist-oriented regime in China.
The reforms that are expected to
be pursued span the spectrum of China's social life including the political,
legal, health and educational fields. They have also raised the possibility
that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s policies under Xi will be more
transparent.
Similar expectations preceded the
rise of outgoing President Hu Jintao a decade ago. Hopes that he would promote
greater democracy and reforms proved overly optimistic. Instead, the Chinese
media found itself increasingly muzzled and subjected to greater government
regulation and opposition activists were subjected to strict curbs. Will Xi's
leadership in the coming years prove to be different?
A recent report by Reporters
Without Borders highlighted Beijing's harsh treatment of dissent over the past
five years and the Chinese government's absolute control over news and
information in the country. Over the past few years, social stability - which
the CCP prides above everything else - has also been subjected to increasing
stress.
Indeed Beijing's massive economic
stimulus programme had supported near double-digit growth (an average of 10 per
cent per year between 2007-2011), but had also resulted in rising levels of
inflation, piled-up debt and social unrest. China was rocked by an estimated
180,000 protests, mass riots and mass incidents - more than four times the
tally of a decade earlier. This notwithstanding, the 18th National Party
Congress witnessed several features that were substantially different from the
past.
Firstly, Xi's speech at the end
of the party congress met with wide acclaim both at home and abroad. Unlike his
predecessor's opening address, Xi avoided most of the popular slogans that were
often recited in official speeches. No mention was made of Hu or any of his
predecessors. Instead Xi centred the core of his message around the need for
the CCP to fight corruption and promising to continue China's
"rejuvenation". Furthermore, terms such as "the people",
"the nation", and "improving the livelihood of the people"
were frequently emphasised.
Xi's speech was also praised by
some of China's social media sites for possessing a "human touch".
According to Chinese microblogging site Weibo, which did a survey of Chinese
online sentiments, Xi's speech received greater support from the online
community - many with strong reform voices - compared to the speech made by Hu
10 years ago.
Secondly, Hu's decision to give
up his position as chairman of the party's Central Military Commission, thus
ensuring a "clean break" with politics, was unusual in China's modern
history. By doing so, Hu not only gave complete autonomy to the new generation
of Chinese leaders to chart their own course, but also avoided criticisms that
an "invisible hand" was behind the scenes, as was the case in the
previous transition involving former president Jiang Zemin and Hu, which
resulted in factional conflicts within the party.
Chinese scholars have noted that
the increasing institutionalisation of China's policymaking processes had
reduced the need for individuals to wield power in a hierarchical context, as
was the case in the past. This has raised the possibility that the future of
China's policies - both domestic and international - would be increasingly
predictable and less subjected to private whims and fancies.
Thirdly, Xi's wife - Peng Liyuan,
a celebrated Chinese folk singer - provided added star power, at least in
public diplomacy. Foreign media have thus speculated whether Peng would play a
low-key role - in accordance with China's tradition - or would be equally
prominent, in the mode of White House First Lady Michelle Obama, thus boosting China's
international image.
Over the past 20 years, Peng's
achievements have arguably received greater public recognition than those of
Xi. This could usher an era of "creative diplomacy" instead of the
usual "chequebook diplomacy" approach that Beijing is often accused
of adopting.
Top Chinese legislator Wu Bangguo
said in a speech in 2009 that the country would never copy the Western
political system and that lawmakers should maintain the correct political
orientation with the leadership of the CCP as the core. Moving forward, this
fundamental feature of a socialist system with Chinese characteristics - as
reiterated by both Hu and Xi during the party congress - would continue to be
upheld.
Thus any changes - or reforms -
made by the CCP government would necessarily be on its own terms, and will not
be dictated either by external powers or internal pressures.
Indeed, the decision to reduce
the number of members in the Politburo Standing Committee from nine to seven
has led outsiders to question the reform credentials of the incoming Chinese
leadership. Both Guangdong Party Chief Wang Yang and Li Yuanchao, who heads the
party organisation machinery, were overlooked in the selection of the standing
committee in favour of party elders. Some political observers have suggested
that the selection of the current seven was made under the strong influence of
Chinese elder statesman Jiang and will likely change at the next party congress
in five years' time when Jiang's influence is further weakened.
At present, much of the talk
emerging from Chinese circles regarding Beijing's future is mostly political
conjecture. It remains to be seen what kind of reforms this new generation of
leaders would be able to push through. The next five years would be crucial for
Xi and his administration as they respond to a Chinese population that is
increasingly pragmatic and demanding while ensuring that party unity remains
intact.
Outside of China, Beijing's
relations with Washington, Europe and Southeast Asia will need to be managed
properly. Indeed the CCP's ability to withstand the stresses of political
change will be a crucial factor in ensuring its longevity and credibility, both
in the eyes of its own people and the rest of the world.
Liu Liu and Benjamin Ho
Liu liu is a research analyst in the China Programme and Benjamin ho is
an associate research fellow in the Multilateralism and Regionalism Programmes
at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological
University.
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