Relations between South Korea and Japan appear to be hanging in the
balance as Tokyo’s revitalised conservatives are poised to roll out more
nationalist foreign and territorial policies after a landslide win in Sunday’s
election.
With a supermajority in the Diet,
the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to focus on resuscitating the
long-moribund economy and building a “normal” state.
Concerns are growing that Tokyo’s
swing to the right could further aggravate historical and territorial frictions
between Japan and neighbouring South Korea and China.
Shinzo Abe, the LDP’s leader and
now prime minister-in-waiting, has articulated his desire to rewrite the
country’s pacifist constitution to boost defence spending and expand the use of
its Self Defence Forces. The plan is welcomed by the US, which has hoped for a
more self-assured and equipped ally in the strategically crucial region.
Abe, a staunch nationalist, has
also vowed to visit the Yasukuni Shrine venerating top war criminals, revise a
watershed 1993 apology for wartime atrocities and step up territorial control.
“Abe will likely toughen his line
on contentious issues given Japan’s domestic political circumstances,” said Jin
Chang-soo, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
“There’s room for self-restraint
as the US wouldn’t want to see its two allies clash over historical problems at
a time when their trilateral cooperation is extremely important. Still there
are many factors that could sour bilateral relations. Abe has made too many
campaign pledges and there’s pressure from other right-leaning coalition
parties with which he has gained lots of votes.”
But the LDP would not implement a
constitutional amendment or collective self-defence operations any time soon,
Jin noted, given the opposition from its centre-right partner, the New Komeito
party and another election for the upper house in July.
On Monday, Abe reiterated that
the islands are Japan’s territory and that there was “no room for
negotiation".
“As with many cases, issues arise
with countries that share borders, and what is important is how each nation
keeps these issues under control. I feel we need wisdom so that the political
issues or problems do not extend to economic problems,” he told a news
conference, primarily referring to the Senkaku, or Diayou, island dispute with
Beijing.
Koreans have bitter memories from
Japan’s colonial rule from 1910-45. Among perennial fault lines between the two
countries are Tokyo’s age-old claim to Dokdo, forced labour and prostitution
during World War II and historical falsifications in school textbooks.
A short-term defining moment may
come on February 22, when Japan is slated to hold a national Takeshima Day. If
Tokyo decides to proceed, the event is forecast to coincide with Seoul’s
February 25 presidential inaugural ceremony, putting bilateral relations on ice
instantly.
Takeshima is the Japanese name
for Dokdo.
“Based on election promises, a
new Abe government would seem more conservative and place emphasis on its
relationship with the US But he also set store by the Korea-Japan ties when he
was prime minister in 2006,” a Foreign Ministry official here told reporters on
customary condition of anonymity.
During his first premiership in
2006-7, Abe refrained from worshipping at the Yasukuni Shrine in consideration
of the country’s relations with Korea, though he later called it a “mistake”.
He also came to Seoul in October 2006.
“Japan will have to take many
factors into account not to form an (unfavorable) atmosphere. We’ll also
consult with each other over such areas on various occasions.”
After the LDP’s sweeping victory,
China’s official Xinhua news agency called on it to “rein in nationalist
sentiment”.
“Instead of pandering to domestic
hawkish views and picking fights with its neighbours, the new Japanese
leadership should take a more rational stand on foreign policy,” it said in a
commentary.
US President Barack Obama
congratulated Abe. “The US-Japan Alliance serves as the cornerstone of peace
and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and I look forward to working closely with
the next government and the people of Japan on a range of important bilateral,
regional and global issues,” he said in a statement.
With the presidential election
one day ahead, Korea’s two main candidates have also promised to continuously
safeguard the country’s sovereignty over Dokdo and resolve the so-called
comfort women and other historical issues.
Park Geun-hye of the ruling
Saenuri Party has stressed the need to decouple the historical animosity from
exchanges between the two countries. Meanwhile, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic
United Party is expected to harden his line on territorial and historical rows.
History aside, constant
cooperation in dealing with North Korea’s saber-rattling may help firm up the
two countries’ partnership, others say.
“A new Japanese government will
now have even greater cause to expand its missile and other defenses, while
seeking closer cooperation with South Korea and the US,” Patrick Cronin, senior
director of the Asia-Pacific security programme at the Centre for a New
American Security, wrote recently.
The resurgence of the LDP comes
less than a week after the communist state fired another rocket, which the
council sees as a covert test of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Led by Abe, Japan’s strong
response to Pyongyang’s 2006 rocket launch resulted in the first UN Security
Council resolution on the matter, No. 1695, which bans trade of any material or
technology for missile or arms development with the nuclear-equipped country.
The cash-strapped country’s
nuclear push has been the “single most effective catalyst for regional cooperation
in Northeast Asia,” said Scott Snyder, director of the U.S.-Korea policy
programme at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
“A North Korean satellite test
may provide a basis for strengthened Japan-South Korea cooperation despite
deepening differences over history and territorial issues,” he wrote on the
think tank’s blog last week.
“If there is a common threat that
should rightly overcome such mistrust and galvanise regional cooperation among
the United States, Japan, South Korea, and China, it most certainly should be
the prospect of a 30-year old leader of a terrorised population with his finger
on a nuclear trigger.”
Shin Hyon-hee
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