2012 saw ASEAN making global headlines over the South China Sea, while
member nations tackled a host of internal challenges -- some better than
others.
2012 has etched itself into the
history books. During the last twelve months Southeast Asia regularly made
global headlines largely due to competing territorial claims between China and
various neighboring states.
Certainly, the result was not
what China hoped for.
Beijing's actions in the South
China Sea and claims over the Spratly and Parcel Islands elevated the status of
the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) on the global
diplomatic stage.
Against this backdrop the United
States continued implementing its "rebalance" to Southeast Asia,
raising the diplomatic stakes in the confrontation, much to China's irritation.
The issue also divided ASEAN like
never before. Several ASEAN members have overlapping claims with China in the
South China Sea. Throughout the year Vietnam and the Philippines took the lead
in challenging Beijing while Malaysia and Brunei adopted a more muted tone in
the dispute.
Beijing tried to thwart efforts
by Manila and Hanoi to establish a united ASEAN position on negotiations with
China over its territorial ambitions. China wants to deal with each claimant
bilaterally and has resisted efforts to bring the dispute before international
courts.
Cambodia had a difficult year as
chair of ASEAN. Phnom Penh – a long term beneficiary of Chinese aid and soft
loans – often times pushed China’s agenda at summits between Southeast Asian
leaders winning it few friends. A stalemate persists.
China could often rely on
Cambodia’s legendary former monarch and King Father, Norodom Sihanouk for help
in soothing regional relations. But the man who led Cambodia against the
Japanese occupation in World War II, and after independence in 1953, passed
away in October.
The public response to his death
was overwhelming and of great concern to Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose
government was under constant fire at home and from international human rights
groups over allegations of widespread land-grabbing by the rich and powerful
and an escalation in the government's use of violence.
Environmentalist Chhut Vuthy was
shot dead in a confrontation over a land concession given to a Chinese company.
Charges against Chhouk Bundith, a district governor who was photographed waving
a gun after witnesses said he shot three women at a labor protest, were
dropped. Equally incredulous was the jailing of veteran broadcaster Mam
Sonando, who was convicted of trying to organize a secession movement. Mam Sonando, like Chhut Vuthy, also had a
habit of criticizing the government, however, Born Samnang and Sok Sam Oeun did
not. The pair, after years of legal wrangling, were again jailed for the 2004
murder of Chea Vichea, a prominent union official who did have a habit of
criticizing Hun Sen. That decision also outraged human rights groups who argued
the pair were simply scapegoats.
Laos followed Cambodia’s lead and
signaled it was also moving closer to China through a series of
billion-dollar-contracts for the construction of dams, roads and railways. In
order to achieve this, Laos has committed itself to Chinese banks and profits
from the $3.5 billion Xayaburi Dam.
The dam will block the mainstream
of the Mekong River, endangering fish migration patterns and much needed food
stocks in Vietnam and Cambodia where 60 million people depend on the river for
their livelihoods. Vientiane ignored objections, led largely by its traditional
ally, Hanoi, where Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung was having his own troubles
with a Communist Party that was angered by his handling of Vietnam’s economy.
In August, the nation’s Appeals Court upheld convictions against nine former
executives of Vinashin, Vietnam’s largest ship builder, for misappropriating
funds. All had close ties with Dung.
In stark contrast was Indonesia’s
economy, which enjoyed a stable year ahead of upcoming elections while the
country’s Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, positioned himself as a potential
regional leader after he patched up differences — If only temporarily — within
ASEAN over China’s advances in the South China Sea.
But the jailing of Umar Patek, a
leader of the now defunct al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiya (JI) was also a
welcome development for Indonesia. Patek was the last of the Bali bombers to be
caught by Indonesian authorities, signaling an end to a horrific decade where
the military focus was almost exclusively centered on counterterrorism.
A peace deal in the southern
Philippines between The Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the national
government has also raised hopes for a more peaceful new year. The deal is yet
to be approved by parliament but, if approved, it should go a long way towards
shoring up support for President Begnino Aquino, whose election in 2010 was due
in part to his pledge to find a lasting peace in the country’s south.
While Aquino enjoyed a solid year
at the helm the same could not be said for the woman he replaced more than two
years ago. Gloria Arroyo was charged with various crimes stemming from her nine
years as president and her association with questionable businessmen.
Former Thai Prime Minister
Abhisit Vejjajiva will also soon appear before the courts after being charged
with the murder of a civilian during a crackdown on anti-government protests
two years ago when he was in power. About 90 people were killed and 1,900
wounded during the confrontation between Red Shirts and the military.
Current Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinwatra, however, had a better year after surviving a no confidence vote and
Yellow Shirt protests. The Supreme Court also ruled in favor of her Peau Thai
Party. But problems with Muslim insurgents in the country’s south and the
economy persisted. Thailand's biggest fiscal headache was driven by the
government's promise to pay rice farmers at higher than market prices for their
product. The hope that this policy would
push global rice prices higher has not been borne out. Instead, the policy has
resulted in Thailand accumulating a mountain of unsold rice and debt.
While many Southeast Asian
countries fared poorly in Transparency International’s annual corruption
survey, Malaysia proved to be an exception. The country climbed to the 54th spot
out of 176 countries, up from 60th a year earlier. The independence of
Malaysia's judicial system was also bolstered when the High Court acquitted opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of
charges that he and many of his supporters said were politically motivated. His
rival Prime Minister Najib Razak kept his political cards close to his chest,
fending off demands for electoral reforms while at the same time threatening to
call an early poll which never materialized.
Singapore again performed well on
the corruption index, ranking as the 5th least corrupt country in the world.
Less flattering was another survey that ranked the city-state as the most
emotionless place on Earth. Singaporeans were annoyed but such feelings became
harder to defend after the government, soon after the survey’s release, refused
entry to what was believed to be a boat carrying 40 Muslim Rohingyas who had
survived being shipwrecked after fleeing the violence in northern Burma. The
deportation of immigrant Chinese bus drivers who called a strike – unheard of
in Singapore for 26 years – didn’t help such perceptions.
New governments were elected in
Papua New Guinea, and in East Timor.
But by year’s end it is Burma
that has emerged as the region’s greatest hope, despite the continued violence
between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine. Bolstered by an unprecedented visit
to his country by U.S. President Barack Obama, Burmese President Thein Sein won
over many of his country’s critics as his political reforms continued to make
headway. There was even one suggestion – ludicrous and insensitive – that Thein
Sein should be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. But such thoughts were likely
dismissed after his military allegedly launched a surprise and bloody Christmas
offensive against rebels in Kachin state, ensuring Burma will again be topping
the international headlines for all the wrong reasons as 2013 gets underway.
Luke Hunt
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
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