In Brunei, Beijing will try to scupper South China Sea cooperation
without driving states toward the U.S.
One has to feel sympathy for
Brunei, this year's chairman of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (Asean). Over the past few years, territorial disputes over the South
China Sea exposed Asean's internal divisions as Beijing adopted a more muscular
policy to bolster its claims. While China did not create those divisions, it
proved adept at exploiting them. This has made chairing Asean a much more
challenging job than it used to be.
Due to differing national
interests, and their differing relationships with China, Asean members view the
dispute differently. Vietnam and the Philippines see it as a major concern and
are cozying up to the U.S., while fellow claimants to the Spratly Islands
Malaysia and Brunei downplay tensions. Indonesia and Singapore have called on
China to provide legal justifications for its expansive claims.
But Thailand, Laos, Burma and
Cambodia short-sightedly do not believe they have a direct stake in the
dispute, and don't want to risk damaging close ties with China by raising the
issue. In fact, the thought of more U.S. influence is proving more divisive. So
the lowest common-denominator consensus at Asean is, blandly, the need for
peace and stability in the South China Sea. Moving beyond that has proved
impossible.
No wonder during Cambodia's
chairmanship of Asean last year, Beijing successfully used its economic
influence over Phnom Penh to ensure the dispute was not addressed in a
substantive manner. Prime Minister Hun Sen toed Beijing's line, putting his
lucrative bilateral relationship with China ahead of Asean's broader interests.
In July, disagreements within
Asean over whether the South China Sea should even be mentioned in a communiqué
scuppered attempts to issue that joint statement for the first time in its
45-year history. A repeat performance of this fiasco was only narrowly averted
in November.
Brunei is obviously keen to avoid
making the same embarrassing mistake. To that end, it will use all the
diplomatic skills at its disposal to maintain a fig leaf of consensus within
Asean while trying to avoid giving offense to Beijing.
Asean not only has a new chair in
2013, but also a new secretary general, who will likely also take a neutral
stance. Seasoned Vietnamese diplomat Le Luong Minh took over early this month,
and will remain at the helm until 2017. Among the four Asean claimants, Vietnam
has the most fractious relationship with China. Mr. Le, however, has stressed
that neither Asean nor its top official would take a position on the merits of
competing territorial claims. He has called for a "spirit of
compromise" to resolve the dispute.
The problem is compromise is
anathema for China. It has sought to uphold its expansive claims in the South
China Sea by increasing its military and paramilitary presence, as well as
bullying the other claimants diplomatically. Last week, it issued a new map
that increases the number of disputed features as Chinese territory to 130 from
29.
Some Asean members like the
Philippines want neighbors to agree on a binding code of conduct in these seas,
but no matter how much they push for it, if China doesn't want to play it won't
happen. And it doesn't. Despite agreeing in principle last year to a code,
Beijing now believes that the "time is not ripe" to begin talks,
according to China's Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi. Instead, it prefers to focus
on implementing a non-binding agreement it signed with Asean in 2002 which aims
to reduce tensions and build mutual trust.
China's intransigence is
unsurprising. It calculates that it can parlay its growing economic and
military clout into coercing its neighbors to eventually accept its claims. It
has already achieved that outcome with Cambodia, which has surely emboldened it
further.
Even if China were to begin
discussions with Asean this year, it would undoubtedly prolong the process and
veto any provisions that would limit its sovereignty-building activities. The
final product is, therefore, unlikely to look very different from the toothless
2002 agreement in place today.
Beijing however knows that its
approach with Asean has frustrated members like Hanoi and Manila who,
disappointed with Asean's lack of solidarity, have turned to the U.S. China is
worried, which is why it has complained loudly about President Barack Obama's
so-called pivot to Asia. But it has a way of weakening America's influence,
too.
To wit, China will continue to
give Asean face by lauding its regional "centrality," but on the
issue of maritime security, its strategy will be divide and rule. This provides
a win-win situation for Beijing, as it ensures that the dispute will only be
dealt with in a superficial manner at Asean-led forums, in which America is a
participant. Once Asean proves incapable of tackling major security issues such
as the South China Sea, Washington may lose its new found enthusiasm for the
organization, leaving China as the organization's dominant external dialogue
partner.
Conflict is not inevitable in the
South China Sea. Barring an accidental clash at sea, the status quo will
continue into 2013. Tensions will ebb and flow, friction will increase over
access to maritime resources such as oil, gas and fish, and Asean and China
will talk about talks. But nobody should expect any major breakthroughs under
Brunei's chairmanship.
Mr. Storey is senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies,
Singapore. He is the author of "Southeast Asia and the Rise of China: The
Search for Security" (Routledge, 2011).
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