There is now enough video and photo evidence to confirm that the Burmese
military has deployed fighter jets and helicopters close to its border with
China to use against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).
One video circulating on
Facebook, in which you can hear a man speaking Kachin, shows a fighter jet
being shot down. Despite this, and various other videos of attack helicopters
and planes flying low over KIA positions, the government on Monday denied it
was using aerial power. Instead it said the planes, which Kachin sources have
claimed include Serbian-made G4 trainer jets, are being used to resupply
Burmese battalions after KIA troops had cut off roads.
Past reports of planes flying
over KIA positions (and allegations the Burmese army was using chemical
weapons) have surfaced since fighting first broke out in June 2011, although
without the intensity of the latest wave from the Burmese side. Nor was there
the hard video evidence that has emerged in the past fortnight.
It’s probably safe to say then
that the conflict has moved into a new phase, as the Burmese push closer to the
Kachin headquarters in Laiza (the government had reportedly ordered the KIA to
clear a key supply road by 25 December, or risk heavier attacks). “We’ve heard
motor fire in every 20 minutes day and night since 14 December,” one person
wrote.
A source currently in Laiza told
me today that fighting has broken out around Bumre Mountain, which lies around
seven kilometres from Laiza, and is thus very close to the China border. It may
well also be the closest that fighting has got to Laiza. Other unverified
reports from the KIA claim the Chinese are complicit in the fighting.
“All the jets they have been
using to crush the posts around Laiza are attacking Pangwa areas now,” another
source said in an email. “They’re using Chinese airspace and bombarding there.
So the Chinese police from border point-6 have gone. It’s obvious that China is
the accomplice in this.”
Again, this can’t be
independently confirmed, yet the Burmese army is known to have used Chinese
territory earlier this year to launch a rear-guard assault on a Kachin
battalion north of Laiza. That may or may not have been done this with the
permission of Chinese authorities.
China however should be growing
nervous at the proximity of the fighting to its border (Laiza town sits
directly on the borderline). On several occasions, notably after the Burmese
attack on Kokang rebels in 2009 that forced 30,000 refugees into China, it has
warned Burma to maintain stability in the border regions where it has various
lucrative investments. It may then have pressured Burma into attempting a final
rout of the Kachin army, which as investment in Kachin state grows becomes a
potentially destabilising force, although its strained relations with the
government cloud the picture somewhat.
Of pressing concern is the safety
of refugees close to Laiza. Conditions are already poor with the arrival of
winter snow in the Kachin mountains, meaning that should fighting draw closer
to the camps, the ability of refugees to flee will be hugely impeded. Kachin
sources have said that planes and helicopters have flown over Je Yang and Hpung
Lum Yang camps near Laiza, and as a result, “trenches and foxholes have been
dug around the camps”. If China is indeed playing a hand in this latest push,
then one can assume it would also tighten the border and potentially block
refugees from crossing over (it already expelled around 7,000 Kachin refugees
from its territory earlier this year). The situation is endlessly traumatic for
the 70,000-odd displaced Kachin.
The lack of international
condemnation for the latest wave of attacks is puzzling. “Just like Syria but
where’s the intl outrage?” tweeted one journalist of the aerial assaults.
Kachin have also used social media to vent anger at Aung San Suu Kyi, whom they
say has not responded with any substance to the conflict. It’s worth
remembering that President Thein Sein has twice already ordered troops to cease
attacks on the Kachin, but clearly to no avail.
“The Burmese military is wrong to
believe that the tenuous peace in other parts of Burma has given it a free hand
to handle the Kachin conflict as it pleases,” reads a measured and important
editorial in the Irrawaddy last week. “All it is doing is fanning the flames of
ethnic resentment, and making real peace harder to achieve in the long run.”
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