The warming trend in US-Myanmar relations witnessed in 2012 represents
the culmination of years of diplomatic manoeuvring. The two countries had been
at loggerheads ever since Washington downgraded its representation in Myanmar
from ambassador to chargé d'affaires in the bloody aftermath of 1988 democracy
uprising and the then ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council military
government's refusal to acknowledge the 1990 general election results won by
the pro-democracy opposition.
Last year's rapprochement, which
saw Washington roll back economic and financial sanctions, was also a result of
the US government's dual-track policy, which has made strategic use of carrots
and sticks.
As a condition for normalizing
bilateral relations, Washington made some fundamental demands, including: the
release of all political prisoners (more than 2,000 held in different prisons
across Myanmar in the beginning of 2012), inclusive dialogue with opposition
parties and ethnic minorities, adherence to the United Nations'
non-proliferation agreements on nuclear weapons and an end to any illicit
cooperation with North Korea, greater accountability on human-rights issues,
and a cessation of violence against ethnic minorities. The US also called for
free and fair by-elections - held last April, polls that allowed pro-democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi to assume a seat in parliament.
First, a total of 651 political
prisoners were either released or offered a presidential pardon by the
government in January 2012. Those released included prominent political
prisoners, including leaders of the 1988 democracy uprising, ex-military
intelligence chief and deposed prime minister General Khin Nyunt, and ethnic
Shan leaders Hkun Htun Oo and Sai Nyunt Lwin, who were sentenced respectively
to 93- and 85-year prison sentences.
Second, President Thein Sein's government
signed ceasefire agreements with several armed ethnic groups, including the
Arakan Liberation Party, Chin National Front, Karenni National Progressive
Party, Karen National Union, Karen Peace Council, National Socialist Council of
Nagaland- Khaplang, New Mon State Party, Pa-O National Liberation Army, and
Shan State Army-North.
Third, the government held
internationally lauded by-elections where the opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD), previously banned for its boycott of the 2010 general
elections, won 43 of the 45 seats it contested. The participation of the NLD
and other political parties associated with ethnic minority groups boosted
Thein Sein's quasi-civilian government's claim to legitimacy and the
credibility of its seven-step "roadmap" toward democracy that
initially began in 2003.
In return, Special Representative
and Policy Coordinator for Burma Derek Mitchell was confirmed as the new US
ambassador in late June, representing a symbolic upgrade of diplomatic
relations. US investment sanctions were suspended the next month, followed by
the removal of a long-standing import ban on goods produced in Myanmar in
September. The suspension of investment sanctions enabled US companies and
multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund to re-establish links with the capital-starved country.
The US made three important
achievements through its engagement initiatives, namely: the triumph of
diplomacy over isolation; official assurances that Myanmar is not engaged in
any illicit engagement with North Korea on nuclear programs; and a firmer
footing for its presence in Southeast Asia amid rising competition with China
for regional influence.
Improved relations enabled the US
government to re-establish the US Agency for International Development mission
to Myanmar, lend support for a normal UN Development Program country program
and facilitate travel to the US for select Myanmar officials and
parliamentarians.
They also paved the way for the
US and Myanmar to cooperate on the recovery of Americans missing in action or
held as prisoners of war during World War II, a move seen by some as a first
step towards normalized military-to-military relations.
Through improved bilateral
relations with the US, Thein Sein's government achieved its long-sought goal of
legitimacy in the international community. Until the April by-elections, the US
and other Western nations still considered the results of the 2010 general
elections, widely decried as rigged in favor of pro-military candidates, as
unrepresentative of the Myanmar people. The suspension of sanctions in both the
US and European Union thus represented a significant diplomatic turn for
Myanmar.
The positive diplomacy culminated
in US President Barack Obama's visit to Myanmar in November, the first by a
sitting US president. The historic visit was however criticized by several
rights groups that argued it was premature to reward Thein Sein's government
with such a high-profile visit when violence still continued in Kachin and
Rakhine states and hundreds of political prisoners remained behind bars.
Officials in Washington said Obama's visit was to acknowledge democratic
reforms and to encourage further reforms.
While both governments should be
commended for taking bold steps to improve bilateral ties, many important
questions remain. The primary concern now is whether political gestures from
Myanmar's government will genuinely address lingering ethnic minority problems,
which remain at the core of decades-old conflicts in the country.
Will Thein Sein's government be
able to broker a ceasefire agreement with insurgent Kachins and will ceasefire
agreements already signed with various other armed ethnic groups lead to
lasting peace and genuine autonomy? Will the 2008 constitution, which currently
guarantees 25% of seats in parliament for military appointees, be amended in a
way that removes the inherent role of the military in politics? Will all
remaining political prisoners be released unconditionally?
There is still uncertainty about
how the US will respond if these expectations go unfulfilled in the year ahead.
To be sure, 2012 was a significant year in terms of diplomatic rapprochement
between the US and Myanmar. The longevity and durability of these improved
bilateral relations, however, will be contingent upon whether Myanmar's
democratic transition progresses and deepens in a meaningful way.
Nehginpao Kipgen
Nehginpao Kipgen is general secretary of the US-based Kuki International
Forum. His research focuses on the politics of South and Southeast Asia, with a
concentration on Burma/ Myanmar. He has written numerous academic
(peer-reviewed) and nonacademic analytical articles on the politics of Burma
and Asia that have been widely published internationally. His latest article
entitled "US-Burma Relations: Change of Politics under Bush and Obama
Administrations" is scheduled for publication in Strategic Analysis by
Routledge in March 2013.
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