MANILA - This month will mark the first 100 days after the historic signing of
the Bangsamoro Peace Framework Agreement between the Philippine government and
the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
The agreement has been widely
touted as a great leap forward toward ending armed conflict in the region
through the creation of a new political entity, known as the Bangsamoro
regional government, that will replace the existing five-province Autonomous Region
in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).
That optimism waned somewhat
after the 12,000 strong MILF announced that it would not lay down its arms
until the new Bangsamoro entity is officially in place. MILF chairman Al Haj
Murad said his rebel group would disarm only after the "appropriate"
political conditions were established.
MILF chief negotiator Mohager
Iqbal followed that statement by saying that the most difficult phase in the
peace process would be the disarmament of rebels, insinuating that the toughest
part of the negotiations was yet to come.
"Many [MILF fighters] have
known nothing but warfare most of their lives. We are used to fighting. We are
not used to governance," Iqbal said. Mindanao's 40-year-old civil war has
claimed an estimated 150,000 lives on both sides and resulted in extraordinary
displacement and suffering among the civilian population.
Trade and investment officials
appointed by President Benigno Aquino earlier announced that the new peace deal
will open the way to billions of dollars worth of investment in Mindanao, one
of the country's most impoverished yet resource-rich regions. The government
has targeted power, palm oil and tourism as priority investment sectors.
Eduardo Malaya, Philippine
Ambassador to Malaysia, recently enthused while speaking at the first Mindanao
Business Networking event, a post peace pact initiative held in Kuala Lumpur,
that "we are collectively announcing to the world that Mindanao is finally
open for business."
Foreign investors have
nonetheless remained cautious, in part because there are no clear guidelines
for how their investments will be protected and secured in historically
contested territories. The MILF's recent statements have raised new questions
about the viability of the October 15 framework peace deal and will undoubtedly
amplify those investor concerns.
So, too, will rising indications
that not all MILF-related rebels back the deal. A week after the peace pact was
signed, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, an MILF breakaway faction,
clashed with the MILF in Maguindanao province, with a handful of fighters on
both sides killed and wounded.
The Moro National Liberation
Front (MNLF), the predecessor to the MILF that signed a ceasefire agreement
with the government, assembled 7,000 MNLF members and warned the government of
renewed hostilities if the proposed Bangsamoro entity outlined in the framework
agreement is implemented.
Other signs of instability have
dampened hopes for peace. In December, armed groups operating in western
Mindanao abducted a school teacher and eventually demanded a ransom from the
government. In Zamboanga City, where some MILF commanders reside, more than 180
people were victims of shooting incidents in 2012.
Academics and analysts now argue
that the government rushed the signing of the peace pact without studying fully
the implications. Julkipli Wadi, dean of the Institute of Islamic Studies, at
the University of the Philippines, asks, " How do you sustain a Bangsamoro
Framework entity when there are armed groups who feel sidelined?"
The framework agreement is now
also being carefully monitored by foreign development organizations led by the
United Nations and Australian Government Overseas Aid Program (AusAID).
Australia has said it needs to see the implementing guidelines of the peace
framework pact before offering more financial aid. AusAID has been the biggest
donor to fund quality education programs in ARMM through its Basic Education
Acceleration in Mindanao program.
As questions rise about the framework
agreement, Aquino's popularity has started to slip. A January survey conducted
by independent polling agency Social Weather Stations showed that his net
performance rating had dropped by 12%. The survey was notably conducted
nationwide in December 2012 when state media was broadcasting daily positive
news stories about the peace deal.
Still, many are hopeful that the
government and MILF will not repeat the mistakes of the government's 1996 peace
pact with the MNLF. The recent framework agreement with the MILF is widely
viewed as a modified formula of that prior deal.
Six years after the signing of
the 1996 peace agreement, MNLF fighters bombed a military detachment in Sulu
Province and held 70 civilians hostage in Zamboanga City after their leader Nur
Misuari lost in the ARMM's gubernatorial elections against fellow MNLF member
and medical doctor Farouk Hussein.
Prior to that election, the
MNLF's 15-man executive committee controversially ousted Misuari and installed
Hussein as the group's new leader. Similar to the 1996 peace pact, the
government has launched positive state media releases on the need for peace and
development. But while Aquino's spin doctors announce that lasting peace is
around the corner, the MILF continues to hold onto their guns while other armed
groups bay for war.
Noel T Tarrazona
Noel T Tarrazona is a permanent resident (immigrant) of Canada. He is at
present in Mindanao doing humanitarian work. He teaches at the Master Degree in
Public Administration Program of Universidad de Zamboanga in Zamboanga City. He
can be reached at noeljobstreet@yahoo.com.
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