Over the last month Thailand has detained at least 800 Rohingya, a
persecuted Muslim minority from Burma. The international community were
concerned they would be deported, but for now the Thai government has relented
and stated they will not deport the Rohingya.
The government will allow the UNHCR
to interview the Rohingya, Thailand will provide them with shelter for 6
months, and assured that they would be treated humanely.
However, the possible role that
the Rohingya may play in the insurgency in southern Thailand has been raised.
The Bangkok Post on January 16, 2013:
The government plans to consult
with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) before deciding
on the status of nearly 850 detained Rohingya migrants, Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra says.
The government will not return or
relocate the Rohingya migrants for the time being, Ms Yingluck said after
Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.
…
Ms Yingluck said some of the
migrants might join the southern insurgency rather than seek asylum in a third
country.
The Nation on January 18, 2013:
Chalerm said he had no concerns
that the Muslim Rohingyas would get involved with the insurgency in the deep
South. “What is problematic is their [possible] future illegal entry into
Thailand in the long term. This is a very delicate matter and Thailand needs to
protect its interests while not violating human rights,” he said
Fellow AC blogger Francis Wade
blogged on Yingluck’s comments. Key excerpt:
Thai Prime Minister Yingluck
Sinawatra indulged in some loaded conjecturing yesterday when she warned that
the 840-plus Rohingya in detention in Thailand “might join the southern
insurgency rather than seek asylum in a third country”. The men, women and
children in question were found in Songkla’s Sadao district over the course of
several raids last week on smuggling dens run by human trafficking rackets.
…
The Prime Minister’s statement,
apparently unsubstantiated, is a reckless one, based mainly on the hackneyed
assumption that any disenfranchised Muslim is automatically a terrorist threat.
It risks directing anti-Muslim sentiment at the Rohingya, who are in Thailand
in part to escape that branding.
BP: Indeed for an ethnic group
who have long been labelled as terrorists, in what DVB calls a disinformation campaign
by the Burmese authorities, and more recently last year by Burmese
nationalists, such loaded conjecture could lead to further speculation and
create unease for Rohingya who make it Thailand. As it is the plight of the
Rohingya receives little sympathy in Thailand so one wonders, was it really
necessary to speculate? Fortunately, the PM’s speculation was a footnote in
most stories in the Thai media with much greater focus being given to the
change in government position to allow them to stay for processing by the UN or
the government was going to strictly control the entry of the Rohingya in
Thailand.
However, the PM’s speculation may
have provided an opportunity for others to be more specific on the threat of
the Rohingya’s involvement in the Deep South. The Nation:
Some Rohingya migrants arrested
for illegal entry have confessed to being trained by insurgents to undertake
attacks in the restive deep South, according to a highly-placed source in the
Justice Ministry’s Forensic Science Institute.
The source said the men had
entered Thailand through Mae Sot in northern Tak province and later moved to
Sungai Kolok in Narathiwat in the far south. Their case was discovered in 2009.
“These two men confessed that
they were trained by the RKK and later were sent back to carry out attacks in
the southern border provinces. This is very worrying,” the source said.
In 2009, a number of Rohingya
carrying Malaysian ID cards were arrested after having carried out attacks in
the southern border provinces, according to the source. “But a case like this
was not common,” the source said.
Authorities also found that some
illegal immigrants had smuggled explosive substances from India, she said.
The source said it was possible
the illegal immigrants got help from smuggling rings to transport them from
border areas to other parts of the country. “Many Rohingya are smuggled to the
coastal provinces of Satun and Ranong, and some of them are sent to Malaysia.”
A source at the Internal Security
Operations Command (Isoc) yesterday denied having such information about
Rohingya in Thailand.
BP: ASTV Manager and other Thai
media outlets have on-the-record quotes from Dr. Pornthip, the head of the
Central Institute of Forensic Science, stating the same thing. This is the
first time BP has seen any mention of confessions although talk of explosives
and the Rohingya is not new. Back in 2009 when the Rohingya were pushed back to
sea, Dr. Pornthip fronted the media and linked the Rohingya to the insurgency
in the Deep South, providing cover for the military to detain them as a threat
to national security. At the time, she told Al Jazeera:
But according to a leading Thai
forensics expert, “explosives residue” was found on one of the Rohingya boats
that landed on Thailand’s Andaman coast in December.
Dr Porntip Rojanasunan, a
forensic pathologist working for the ministry of justice, was asked by the Thai
military to examine the contents of some of the boats, specifically to examine
whether the refugees may be linked to fighters in the south, and if they held
any objects that may be a “security threat”.
Explosives
“There were substances and
chemicals found that can be used in explosives … there was actually quite a
significant level,” she told Al Jazeera.
Asked whether the traces could be
directly linked to the separatist movement in the south, she said: “I can only
give the authorities what my results of the tests were.”
BP: As blogged in 2010:
No details are provided on what
technology was used by Pornthip to detect explosive residue, but given she is
one of the ardent supporters of the GT200 device* and was using the GT200
device just a few months before to confirm whether there was explosive residue
at another event, shouldn’t we wonder whether the GT200 device was used here? Aside
from the GT200 device was there are any other confirmation of explosive
residue?
BP: The latest statement by Dr.
Pornthip is more than just talk of explosive residue. There is talk of actual
explosives and confessions. Four years have passed now and while prosecutions
often take a long time so have those who confessed been prosecuted? Is there
any other outside source that can corroborate what Dr. Pornthip is saying? So
far haven’t seen one. Aside from the allegations above, BP does not recall any
other evidence linking the Rohingya with the insurgency in Thailand’s Deep
South.
BP sees three ways outsiders
could be involved in the violence in Thailand’s Deep South into 3 categories:
1. Trainers; 2: Operators/implementers; and 3. Support personnel. No doubt
there can be other possible categories.
1. Trainers
Over 10 years ago, Thai passports
were reportedly been found at Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the largest
Muslim separatist group in the Philippines, training camps. There are also
reports of logistical support and training being provided by those in Indonesia
and elsewhere from many years ago.
Reports of training and support
in the past make sense though. This was before the resurgence 0f violence in
2004 or not long after when the capability of many insurgents in the Deep South
was lacking. In the years since then, we have had bigger and more sophisticated
bombs and the insurgents certainly possess a level of expertise in bomb-making
which didn’t exist 10 years ago. With this expertise means, there is less need
for outsiders unless they are providing more specific training.
What is the likelihood of
Rohingya arriving by boat providing such training? Common sense would suggest
“very unlikely. Why you ask? If they just wanted to enter Thailand, why risk
doing so by boat? Many boats have been lost at sea, the trip is unsafe etc. If
you are some expert, you wouldn’t risk coming by boat.
In fact, in the case that
Pornthip is referring to from 2009, it involved entry from the North of
Thailand via a land border crossing and not by Rohingya coming by boat. There
seems a great difference, in BP’s opinion, of those who have arriving by boat
vs someone arriving by land. To conflate the two in a risk assessment, would be
unwise.
2. Implementers/Operators
By this, BP means those who will
carry out attacks. How are the Rohingya going to integrate themselves with
cells that operate in the Deep South? You have language problems, you have the
fact that they look different and would no doubt come under suspicion from the
authorities on their appearance, you have the lack of ties to others in the
village, and general lack of trust of newcomers.
3. Support personnel
Now, for Rohingya who end up in
the 3 southern border provinces, no doubt they would be looking to earn money
to survive. Aside from the problems of integrating themselves and becoming
known, it would make sense that any tasks given to outsiders would likely be
menial tasks. Again though, what is the likelihood of being able to screen such
people in advance? people once they arrived and one wonders what kind of
screening upon arrival could help.
For 2 and 3, there may be
isolated cases – now or in the future – of Rohingyas ending up “in the
insurgency”, but again common sense would suggest that there will be few
outsiders particularly the Rohingya who don’t have the same ethnic background
as those in the Deep South and speak a different language. More importantly,
those who end up involved would likely only do so after living in Thailand for
many years. For such people, it would be
difficult to screen upon arrival (they are unlikely to have phone numbers of
cell leaders in their pockets as it is only once they arrive could they become
acquainted with such leaders).
Overall, there may be some isolated
cases. Some people from any ethnic group could be hired to smuggle weapons or
explosives if the price is right. There is still no evidence that any Rohingya
arriving by boat have become involved in the insurgency. Perhaps, the
authorities should focus attention on actual, tangible threats….
btw, Saksith has a somewhat
related post with some background.
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