WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama wants Asia to be a
growing focus of his foreign policy, but as his second terms begins, success
could hinge on his ability to manage hot spots elsewhere in the world and avert
a fiscal crisis at home.
Within two weeks of winning
re-election, Obama became the first U.S. president to visit Burma, signaling
his intent to sustain his administration’s “pivot” to the region following the
decadelong entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan.
That’s a reflection of Asia’s
growing economic and strategic importance. In the past three years, Washington
has embroiled itself in diplomacy over the disputed South China Sea, deployed
more military-assets to the Asia-Pacific and pushed forward a regional trade
pact. It has also put a lot of effort into managing ties with emerging rival
China.
Those moves have been broadly
welcomed in Asia, but governments question the U.S. ability to sustain its
policy.
While Sen. John Kerry, the
nominee to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state, is expected to
continue the policy, the Middle East looks destined to demand the lion’s share
of his attention. There’s no end in sight to the civil war in Syria and
pressure could mount to take military action over Iran’s nuclear program.
And it will be tough to enhance the
U.S. profile in Asia in an age of austerity. In contrast to China, the U.S. can
little afford more aid for its allies and to expand its military presence.
But perhaps most critical to U.S.
stature in the region will be how it manages its deep political divisions at
home. Failure to resolve the long-running standoff between Obama and
Republicans over how to manage America’s $16.4 trillion national debt weighs on
global financial markets. The Republican-controlled House is set to vote on a
temporary measure next week that would permit the government to borrow more
money to meet its debt obligations for about three months, although it wouldn’t
tackle how to reduce the debt.
Without an extension in the debt
ceiling, the world’s largest economy could default as soon as mid-February.
That would likely prompt a downgrade in the U.S. credit rating, leading to
higher borrowing costs in the U.S. and elsewhere. It would alarm creditor
governments, such as China and Japan, which both hold more than $1 trillion in U.S.
Treasury securities. It could undermine America’s position as a safe haven for
investors and trigger economic turmoil.
Australia’s foreign minister, Bob
Carr, warned after a last-gasp deal at the new year — staving off an immediate
tax hike and budget cuts — that the massive U.S. debt has raised questions
about the United States’ ability to provide world leadership. But the trusted
ally put a positive spin on things: “America is one budget deal away from
resolving the issue of American decline,” he said.
The top U.S. diplomat for East
Asia agrees. Kurt Campbell, who is expected to stand down soon, said last week
how the U.S. conducts itself domestically and handles its budget problems “will
be at the heart of how Asia views our enduring role in the Asia-Pacific
region.”
That standoff looms large as
Obama takes the oath of office in the White House for his second term Sunday,
ahead of a grand swearing-in ceremony at the Capitol on Monday.
Yet for all the divisiveness in
Washington, Asia policy remains an area of broad agreement.
Both parties have supported
efforts to build stronger ties with Asia to position the U.S. to benefit from
the region’s rapid economic growth: cementing alliances in South Korea and
Japan, building a strategic partnership with India and expanding ties in
Southeast Asia. Most notably, Republicans and Democrats have shown rare unity
in backing the administration’s ambitious outreach to former pariah state
Myanmar.
But the Asia policy initiatives
of Obama’s first term could bring with them messy responsibilities in the
second term.
The U.S. declaration in 2010 of
its national interest in the peaceful resolution of maritime territorial
disputes in the South China Sea has boosted Washington’s standing among nations
intimidated by China’s assertive behavior in the resource-rich region. But the
Southeast Asian bloc that the U.S. wants to tackle the disputes appears
ill-suited to cope. It is at risk of fracturing between those nations that want
collective negotiations advocated by the U.S. and those opposing such diplomacy
in deference to China.
Doubts remain over the commitment
of Myanmar’s military to democratic reform. Despite a shift away from
authoritarian rule that has been rewarded by the relaxation of U.S. sanctions,
the military has waged an offensive against ethnic rebels in the country’s
north.
If confirmed as secretary of
state, an immediate concern for Kerry will be the rising tension in Northeast
Asia, where China, Japan and South Korea all are ushering in new leaders.
China’s spat with Japan over
contested islands threatens to embroil the U.S. if it escalates. While
Washington will reaffirm its alliance with Japan, it also wants deeper ties
with Beijing to dilute the risk of conflict breaking out. The U.S. will
encourage Japan and South Korea — which both host American forces — to patch up
relations strained over Tokyo’s attitude toward its colonial past.
On North Korea, Kerry’s arrival
could herald a new approach.
As chairman of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee, he was critical of the Obama administration’s reluctance
to negotiate with Pyongyang on its nuclear program, and held informal talks
last year with visiting North Korean officials in New York. But he’ll also be
aware of the pitfalls of such engagement. Within a week of the meeting in New
York, the North dashed hopes of rapprochement by announcing a long-range rocket
launch.
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment