Assuming the count holds, Indonesia’s next
president changes the rules — in favor of democracy
What is
the meaning of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo?
Assuming the “quick count” results from Wednesday’s election hold up,
the presumptive next president of Indonesia has risen from obscurity in just
two years to do something virtually no Asian politician in living memory has
done: become a national leader on the basis of civic accomplishment, not family
heritage or party connections.
Assuming
feared dirty tricks from his opponent’s camp do not materialize to create
uncertainty and instability, Jokowi has claimed the prize as a democrat and a
true outsider. It is a rare feat. Every other county in Southeast Asia is
governed by seasoned party veterans such as the warhorses of Malaysia and
Singapore, the communist autocrats of Vietnam and Laos, the royalist-backed
military now running Thailand, Cambodia’s perennial strongman Hun Sen or the
aristocratic politicians who typically claim power in the Philippines.
But
Jokowi, whose back story as a furniture maker turned mayor turned governor
turned national phenomenon is by now globally known, represents a new breed of
politician for his country and the region. He is the first Indonesian
politician to ride to national prominence using the democratic rules painfully
built since the demise of the three-decade dictatorship of the late President
Suharto in 1998.
Spotted
when he was still a modest businessman and a budding civic activist, he was
elected mayor of the small city of Solo in 2005 and he was praised, liked and
reelected for doing a good job. From there he came to the attention of former
President Megawati Sukarnoputri, the chairman of the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who backed his successful run for Jakarta governor
in 2012. Ironically, his other major ally was former General Prabowo Subianto,
his rival for president; virtually every other major political actor at the
time backed the entirely forgettable – but malleable – incumbent. The searing
bitterness of the campaign was driven in large part because Prabowo once saw
Jokowi’s rise as a harbinger of his own drive to be president.
The
rise of Jokowi, though, is about something deeper than just winning elections.
He has so far been a very capable elected official with no hint of corruption
attached to him, but that is only part of his appeal. His supporters are also
attracted to him precisely because he is that rare politician who seems
uncynically close to the people he represents.
Time and again Indonesians have told me that they supported Jokowi
because he is “one of us.” No one would say that of the aloof and patrician
current President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who presides but rarely connects,
nor of any other Indonesian president.
Jokowi’s
narrow but still substantial preliminary victory, by a margin of about 53 per
cent to 47 per cent for Prabowo, according to half-a-dozen reputable polling
organizations, also attests to deep divisions in the nation. Prabowo’s
carefully calibrated and well-financed campaign of nationalistic bombast,
negativity and longing for a military past very nearly closed a gap that was
once so wide in Jokowi’s favor it almost seemed as if he would be elected by
acclamation.
Clearly
there is still substantial yearning among many Indonesians for a strong man in
the mold of founding president Sukarno or career dictator Suharto, a figure to
command obedience not convince through deeds. That Prabowo was the last man
standing in the race against Jokowi is itself remarkable – he is also in his
own way something of an outsider, an extreme example because of his checkered
military past of a man whose appeal is based on standing apart – and above ‑ his people. Prabowo
rode into contention through the military, a path to power from another time,
and he has been single-minded in his quest. That he fell short appears to mark
the end of a long chapter in Indonesian history and the country’s emergence as
a more modern – if imperfect – democracy.
It will
be easy to move forward from here to the planned October presidential
inauguration if there are no serious disruptions. The markets will greet a
Jokowi victory favorably, business for the most part views him as more
reasonable than Prabowo; even many Prabowo supporters find Jokowi acceptable
precisely because he is non-threatening and hopefully competent.
Should
Prabowo and his camp choose to push their claim of victory on the basis of
quick count operations few trust, the result could be disastrous. Prabowo
presumably has the political backing to make such a move, given that he has
Yudhoyono, parts of the military and the powerful Golkar Party on his side, but
to prevail would require reversing widely trusted early results and using
shadowy court procedures. It would leave the nation uncertain and unstable,
something that would be bad for Indonesia and bad for the region.
As a
reminder of the perils of trying to reverse the popular will, we have Thailand,
where the 2006 coup against Thaksin Shinawatra’s government has resulted in
more than eight years of governmental paralysis and now military rule – all to
preserve vested interests.
This is
not to say that Jokowi is akin to Thaksin, who represents a new oligarchy
challenging an established one. Jokowi instead may be the harbinger of a new
kind of politics for his nation and the region, a politician who rises on merit
not money and bases his appeal on competency and paying attention to his
constituents.
To be
sure Jokowi will have a steep learning curve and he may yet stumble due to
inexperience and the devilishly complex forces at play in governing
Indonesia. But everyone in the region
has a stake in the country getting it right. “We all want a better Indonesia,”
Jokowi said in claiming victory. It is a sentiment that is easy to agree with.
A. Lin
Neumann, Edge Review
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
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