A U.S.-Vietnam alliance might be closer to
reality now more than ever.
Carl
Thayer, Flashpoints‘ resident South China Sea expert, took a look at the
reasons China might have preemptively withdrawn its oil rig from South China
Sea waters disputed with Vietnam. Thayer paints a compelling picture of the
multifaceted strategic environment that led Beijing to pull out its oil rig
HYSY-981, which it installed in early May. The diplomatic crisis that followed
drove a wedge between Vietnam and China. For Vietnam — particularly the China
skeptics within the country — the episode vindicated years of mistrust of
Beijing. For China, as Thayer argues, an early withdrawal of the oil rig at
this point represents a face-saving resolution to the crisis — Beijing can now
move to repair relations with Vietnam.
The
HYSY-981 episode may have rendered Vietnam more of a wild card state in the
U.S.-China competition in the Asia-Pacific than it has ever been.
Traditionally, party-to-party solidarity between the communist parties of both
Vietnam and China has kept the Sino-Vietnamese bilateral a relatively stable
feature in the region. The United States, which established diplomatic
relations with Vietnam just 19 years ago, has slowly been expanding its
relationship with Hanoi. The HYSY-981 crisis between China and Vietnam
represents an important overture for Washington in Southeast Asia. If
capitalized, the United States could add an important ally in the region and
continue to have more friends along the Asia-Pacific rimland than does China.
As
Thayer rightly highlights, Vietnam’s domestic political situation is not
monolithically in support of generally good ties with China (crises such as
HYSY-981 notwithstanding). In actuality, the Vietnamese Communist Party is split
between more conservative pro-China elements and pragmatic national interest
types. It is the latter group that favors closer ties with the United States
over China at this point. Even if Beijing succeeds in some diplomatic patchwork
with Hanoi at this point and restores bilateral ties to the point where
business can go on as usual, it will be no easy feat to disabuse Vietnam’s
China skeptics of their strategic mistrust. Thayer notes the disposition of
these types within Vietnam’s political machine:
Other
members of the party view national interests as more important than socialist
ideology. They view Vietnam’s hierarchy of foreign relationships that puts
China on the top as a “comprehensive strategic cooperative partner” as in
tatters. They note that the United States, a mere “comprehensive partner” has
done more to support Vietnam’s sovereignty than Russia, listed second in the
hierarchy as a comprehensive strategic partner.
All of
this suggests that the overture at this point should come from the Vietnamese
side. Indeed, it already has to an extent. An entire year ago, long before any
of this oil rig business, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung used the
2013 Shangri-La Dialogue to call for a greater U.S. role in moderating regional
tensions in the South China Sea. ”No regional country would oppose the
strategic engagement of extra-regional powers if such engagement aims to
enhance cooperation for peace, stability and development. We attach special
importance to the roles played by a vigorously rising China and by the United
States — a Pacific power,” noted Dung, emphasizing the legitimacy of U.S.
influence in the Pacific.
The
actual state of military cooperation between the United States and Vietnam is
slowly burgeoning. U.S. ships have made port calls to Vietnamese military
facilities, including Da Nang and Cam Ranh Bay. This sort of interaction
between the militaries of the two countries has been ongoing since 2007.
Obstacles remain, however: the United States maintains an embargo on lethal military
equipment to Vietnam. Still, especially outside of military matters, there are
still plenty of areas of cooperation. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), for
example, represents a particularly promising avenue by which Vietnam could
mitigate the risk of economic abandonment by China should it swing full-steam
into an alliance with the United States. The TPP would grant Vietnam
preferential trade access with 11 other countries along the Pacific Rim, a
potentially major economic boon.
The
United States, however, should not merely be content to win Vietnam’s
allegiance due to China’s provocations. It should instead demonstrate value to
the Vietnamese government. The best way to do this is to wean Vietnam off its
economic reliance on China. The TPP is a great way to do this, but the United
States could have a major impact on its own. Bilateral trade between the two
countries stood at over $20 billion in 2012, representing ”a thirteen fold
increase since the United States extended “normal trade relations” (NTR)
treatment to Vietnam in 2001.” However abrasive China may have been in recent
months, it will be difficult to convince Vietnam to abandon its most important
bilateral partner without material incentives on top of strategic and
geopolitical ones.
A broader
strategic rapprochement between the U.S. and Vietnam would surely upset China
which under Xi Jinping is keen to establish a security order in Asia that
excludes the United States in the interest of an “Asia for Asians.” But, as
John Kerry told Wang Jiechi at the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue
recently, the U.S. plans to maintain a number of allies in the Asia-Pacific
region, despite China’s misgivings. A Global Times column alleges that Vietnam
is “dancing between [the] U.S. alliance and Chinese brotherhood,” and that it
would be unwise for Vietnam to join the United States in an alliance as
Washington “never loses its innate enthusiasm for promoting Western democracy
and advocating Western values such as human rights and freedom.” For Vietnam, neither choice was easy prior to
the oil rig crisis with China. Prior to this year, an old Vietnamese political
saying – ”Too close to China and lose the country. Too close to America and
lose the party.” — may have held true, but thanks to China’s actions in recent
months, Vietnam may find itself losing nothing by banding together with the
United States.
Ankit
Panda
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated
in Singapore since 1994.
No comments:
Post a Comment