Myanmar - Burma reforms as real as can be

Clearly, something is afoot in Burma. But what is it, and what does it mean?

In recent weeks, the government has moved to update old legislation, address poverty and economic issues, lift some restrictions on the media, and embrace pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi - clearly not par for the course in a country known for military rule for close to 50 years.

Optimists interpret these as baby steps on the long road to democracy. The cynical say they've seen it all before.

Dr Maung Zarni, a research fellow at the London School of Economics and a strident critic of Burma's military, considers the reforms a "mirage", and says the country's generals are simply "reinventing their grip on Burma's society, economy and politics".

Like several others, Ms Debbie Stothard, coordinator for the Alternative Asean Network on Burma, a network of organisations and individuals supportive of democracy in Burma, puts forth the view that the changes have been made partly to help Burma secure the Asean chairmanship in 2014. She adds that "domestically, some of the changes are part of a competition by individuals and factions to gain local legitimacy from a traditionally cynical population".

This view - that Burma is making a bid to win Asean over so the grouping will endorse its bid to take up the rotating Asean chair in 2014 - is plausible.

Mr Marty Natalegawa, Foreign Minister of Indonesia - the current chair - is due to visit Burma soon to assess whether it should be invited to chair Asean in 2014. A decision will be made at the Asean summit in Bali in November.

Much of the legislation winding through the country's new Parliament - such as on trade and investment issues, and workers' rights - is aimed at ensuring that Burma's regulatory framework is brought in line with Asean and international protocols.

There is also official indication the authorities may release at least a few hundred of up to 2,000 political prisoners soon. These could include figures like popular comedian Zarganar, arrested in 2008 while helping victims of Cyclone Nargis.

Addressing the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, Burma's Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwin said President Thein Sein would declare an amnesty for prisoners "at an appropriate time in the near future".

A Yangon-based foreign analyst who e-mailed me believes the changes are not just to impress Asean, but are for real: "Yes, the pace (of change) is partly dictated by the fact that Asean is soon to give an answer to Burma's bid to assume the chair in 2014. But the change taking place is real."

But - exhibiting the caution which many say is still warranted - he asked not to be named.

Professor David Steinberg of Georgetown University pointed out that even if the reforms are being made to win Burma the Asean chair, the key consideration is that they are real and they will improve people's lives. But he also warned: "The situation is fragile because of potential opposition to them internally."

Whatever the motivations for reform, long-standing Burma watchers know that trying to force rapid change in tradition-bound Burma will be counter-productive, playing into the hands of those who have a vested interest in the status quo and giving them an excuse to try to return the country to the bunkers.

"The military still has the power to press the 'rewind' button if it is uncomfortable with developments," warns Ms Stothard.

But perhaps the best indication that things are really changing comes from Ms Suu Kyi herself. Though she remains in favour of Western sanctions - a stance that has annoyed the military in the past - recent events indicate that her position on other matters may be shifting subtly.

Since she met President Thein Sein and other government ministers recently, the once-combative democracy icon has had mostly positive things to say about the country's governing elite.

Speaking via satellite link to current and former world leaders at a New York seminar last week, for instance, she said: "I'm cautiously optimistic that we're going forward. We're beginning to see the beginning of change."

Her cautious endorsement suggests Burma is on the cusp of change, though the process itself remains fragile.

There are already perceptible changes in the power structures since the elections. Formidable senior general Than Shwe - now retired - is no more the sole and undisputed authority. Generals, now in civilian posts, compete with each other. Politicians are right in the mix, and dare to shout down the former military men. Debates in Parliament have even been described by witnesses as "fiery".

Outside factors are also playing a part. The shift in Burma comes at a time of rapid investments from China - and to a smaller extent, India - to boost Burma's ports, highways and pipelines. Meanwhile, India and Asean are pushing for completion of the east-west leg of the Asian highway that will connect Thailand to India through Burma.

Writing this month in Foreign Policy magazine, historian Thant Myint-U said: "Over these next few years, Asia's geography will see a fundamental reorientation, bringing China and India together as never before across what was once a vast and neglected frontier. Burma, long seen in Western policy circles as little more than an intractable human rights conundrum, may soon sit astride one of the world's newest and most strategically significant crossroads."

Mr Thant is dismissive of the view that Burma's reforms are designed to get it the Asean chair and win over international opinion, describing the idea as "frankly, quite ludicrous".

In an interview, he said: "The real motivations are a mix of two things: A genuine desire to see a better future for Burma, and a realisation that in the absence of reform, future unrest, perhaps violent unrest, is far from impossible."

In this calculus, reform in Burma is spurred by self-interest. That is likely to be the strongest guarantee of genuine change.

Nirmal Ghosh

The Straits Times

Business & Investment Opportunities
YourVietnamExpert is a division of Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd, Incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Consulting, Investment and Management, focusing three main economic sectors: International PR; Healthcare & Wellness;and Tourism & Hospitality. We also propose Higher Education, as a bridge between educational structures and industries, by supporting international programs. Sign up with twitter to get news updates with @SaigonBusinessC. Thanks.