Indonesia’s
crisis alert status may soon be lifted as foreign funds return after fears that
recent heavy selling pressures in the financial market might have destabilised
the country’s economy, officials say.
“Things have been more controllable,”
Indonesian Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo said on Friday. “Even the ‘alert’
status that was activated on September 14 could be lifted.”
International investors recently dumped tens
of trillions of rupiah of their assets in the country’s stock and bond markets
— putting pressure on the rupiah exchange rate’s stability — as investors sold
risky assets to turn to savings or safer instruments such as the US dollar amid
high uncertainties over eurozone debt crisis and stalling recovery in the US
that might slow global growth.
Those concerns prompted the Indonesian
government and central bank to take crisis management steps and intervene in
the market by purchasing government bonds and rupiah, urging investors —
including pensions, mutual and premium funds, state firms, lenders and insurers
— to abstain from the selling frenzy.
Last week, foreigners started buying back
Indonesia’s financial assets as they returned to rational investing,
considering the country’s strong fundamentals for weathering a potential
crisis, analysts said.
Indonesia’s economy is set to grow at least
6.5 per cent this year with manageable inflation of below 5 per cent and public
debt of about 26 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP).
“Now we only need to be vigilant,” Agus said.
“We need to be aware of the situation, but generally the condition is good.”
Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution deemed
the financial market “calmer” now that “pressures have not been as heavy as
last week.”
During that period, the rupiah declined about
4 per cent against the US dollar as it broke the 9,000 rupiah psychological
mark after ranging between 8,400 rupiah and 8,900 rupiah throughout the year. A
weaker rupiah could disrupt people’s purchasing power as well as the
government’s and companies’ ability to pay back foreign loans.
Rupiah selloffs mounted as international funds,
which control more than half of the publicly traded stocks at the Indonesia
Stock Exchange (IDX), sold a net 6 trillion rupiah (US$663.6 million) during
the period.
Foreign ownership in government bonds also
slid 28.42 trillion rupiah (US$3.14 billion), pressuring the yield to spike by
10 basis points. A spiking government bond yield, which means plunging prices,
may result in soaring borrowing costs for the government and local firms.
“We feel that we are more ready to tackle
(pressures) now,” Darmin said. The Indonesian central bank has intervened in
both currency and bond markets by buying rupiah and government bonds using its
US$124.6 billion forex reserves as of end of August.
Bank Mandiri chief economist Destry Damayanti
said the central bank’s intervention “supported” the nation’s bond prices and
exchange rate to stem volatility and avoid further plunges that could
destabilise the country’s economy.
“Relative to peers, Indonesia’s rupiah is
actually not the only currency under pressure and in fact fares better,
suggesting broad currency weakening against the dollar,” Destry said, citing
the Malaysian ringgit, which weakened 3.7 per cent so far this year compared to
the rupiah’s 0.3 per cent gain.
Esther Samboh
The Jakarta Post
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