The
World Bank has predicted that Vietnam's gross domestic product will increase
6.1 per cent next year in its East Asia and Pacific Economic Update released on
November 22.
It said the real GDP growth rate in the first
half of 2011 was 5.6 per cent, and is expected to be around 5.8 per cent for
the whole year.
Monthly inflation slowed to around 1 per cent
since June 2011 as stabilisation measures began to take effect.
However, inflation is unlikely to decline
substantially in the near future because of factors such as commodity prices,
minimum wage adjustments, possible hikes in electricity tariffs and market
expectation of a more accommodating credit policy during the last quarter of
the year.
Trade deficit is expected to improve in 2011.
Import growth has slowed as a result of stabilisation policies whereas export
growth has remained robust helped by high commodity prices. Export earnings
grew 33.7 per cent and the import bill increased 25.4 per cent in the first
eight months of this year.
High commodity prices have helped the export
value of key agricultural commodities such as rice, coffee, cashew, pepper,
tea, vegetables and rubber to grow by nearly 40 per cent. At the same time,
crude oil exports have surged by 52 per cent in value despite a volume increase
of only 5 per cent.
The report said a narrowing of the trade
deficit and significant purchase of foreign currencies by the State Bank of
Vietnam have enabled a build-up of foreign reserves to around two months of
imports by the end of July. This could help reduce the risk of immediate
balance payment difficulties as well as ease depreciation pressures on the
Vietnamese dong. The current account deficit is estimated to be less than 4 per
cent of GDP.
However, it said the tightening of monetary
policies is starting to put pressure on the banking sector. In response to
stricter liquidity conditions since late 2010, smaller commercial banks have
offered high deposit rates of up to 18 per cent to gain liquidity despite
central bank guidance in keeping deposit rates at 14 per cent or below,
triggering fierce competition among banks. As there are no prescribed limits on
lending rates, banks have raised them to as much as 22-27 per cent.
With economic slowing down, the pressure on
borrowers is expected to grow in the coming months, resulting in some
deterioration of the quality of bank sector assets in 2011-12. While the
central bank has supported weaker banks through greater liquidity, it has
hinted that some consolidation may be needed if the weaker banks do not perform
up to industry standards.
The World Bank also predicted that CPI will
rise 10.5 per cent with trade deficit reaching around $8 billion.
According to the report, growth is still
strong in developing East Asia, but continues to moderate mainly due to
weakening external demand, underscoring the need for governments to refocus on
reforms to increase domestic demand and productivity.
The report, issued biannually, projected that
amid uncertainties in Europe and a global growth slowdown, real GDP in
developing East Asia will increase by 8.2 per cent in 2011 (4.7 per cent
excluding China) and by 7.8 per cent in 2012. Domestic demand in middle-income
countries was the largest contributor to growth in the region, although it is
easing driven by the normalisation of fiscal and monetary policies.
VIR - VNA
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