For years, I used to say that I had hope for
freedom in Burma, but such hope flew in the face of the facts. My hope was based
on a belief that the courage of the Burmese people would be rewarded in the
end, and that history shows that dictators do not last forever.
It was,
however, a vague hope which I had to hold onto to ensure that my advocacy
efforts were not in vain. Aung San Suu Kyi was under house arrest for most of
the past two decades, over two thousand dissidents were in jail, and the
country’s military was carrying out crimes against humanity. A visit by a
British prime minister was inconceivable.
Today,
Burma may be beginning to change. A year ago, I was deported from the country,
because the authorities disliked a book I had written about the previous
dictator, Senior General Than Shwe. As they threw me out, a military
intelligence officer told me assuredly there was “no change, no change.” Just a
few months later, the new president, Thein Sein, stunned the world by meeting
the woman the regime had refused to talk to but failed to defeat: the democracy
leader and Nobel Peace Prize Laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Since
that meeting last August, he has taken significant and very welcome steps
forward, releasing many political prisoners, including very high profile
dissidents, initiating ceasefire talks with some of the country’s ethnic
groups, and making it possible for Suu Kyi and her party, the National League
for Democracy (NLD), to participate in by-elections for the country’s new
Parliament. Suu Kyi won her seat in a landslide, and the party won 43 of the 45
seats contested. Ten months after I was deported, I was able to go back to
Rangoon.
All
this has made David Cameron’s visit later this week not only possible, but
desirable. We should now be seeking ways to encourage Thein Sein to continue on
this reformist path, and one way to do so is to bring him and other reformers
within the regime in from the cold. However, just as it is important to
recognize, welcome and applaud the steps taken so far, it is equally important
to keep on reminding Thein Sein that there is much more he needs to do.
The
Prime Minister must be clear with Thein Sein: so far, what we have seen amounts
primarily to a change in atmosphere rather than a change in system. We must not
underestimate the significance of the reforms, but nor must we think that the
job is done. Reform must of course begin with a change in atmosphere, a
widening of political space, a relaxation in mood, but those steps must be the
first in a process of change.
The
next steps must include the release of all remaining political prisoners,
access to prisons and all parts of the country for international human rights
monitors, unrestricted access to all areas for international humanitarian aid
organizations, and substantial legislative, institutional and constitutional
reform. Unjust laws which could put dissidents back in jail tomorrow if the
authorities so wished must be amended or repealed; an independent judiciary
established; the rule of law developed.
And while
the NLD’s victory in the by-elections is significant in what it says about the
desires of ordinary Burmese voters, it does not by itself signal lasting
reform. The NLD will hold only 6.4 per cent of the parliamentary seats, in a
legislature dominated by the military and pro-military parties. In 2010,
Burma’s first elections in twenty years were heavily rigged to ensure that the
military’s party, the Union Solidarity Development Party (USDP), had a large
majority.
Just to
be sure of guaranteeing power, in addition to rigging and harassment, the
military reserved 25 per cent of the seats for themselves even before the poll.
So Aung San Suu Kyi and her MPs will have a lot of work to do to build an
informal coalition with other pro-democracy parties, ethnic parties and
reform-minded members of the USDP, if there is to be a chance for real change.
And the real test will be Burma's next general election, in 2015.
In
addition to legislative, institutional and constitutional reform, the major
challenge to be addressed is the plight of Burma’s ethnic nationalities, who
make up 40 per cent of the population and inhabit sixty per cent of the land.
For 65 years, successive Burmese governments, and particularly the military
regimes that have ruled the country since Ne Win seized power in a coup in
1962, have been fighting the ethnic groups and their simple demand for equal
rights and a degree of autonomy. The Karen were the first to be attacked, but
by the mid-1960s almost all the ethnic groups were facing brutal military
offensives by the regime.
Both
Britain and Aung San Suu Kyi have an important role to play in helping Burma
secure a lasting nationwide peace. Britain has an historic responsibility,
because many of the ethnic nationalities, especially the Karen and Kachin,
fought bravely alongside the Allies against the Japanese in the Second World
War. Britain promised them autonomy, but failed to deliver, leaving them at the
mercy of Burman nationalists after independence.
Suu
Kyi, similarly, has a legacy to fulfil, since it was her father, Aung San, who
presided over the Panglong Agreement which established equal rights and
autonomy for the ethnic nationalities. Aung San, who led the country’s
independence movement against British colonial rule, was assassinated before
independence, and the Panglong Agreement was discarded. Decades of war and
suffering ensued.
Last
weekend, leaders of the Karen National Union (KNU), one of the largest ethnic
resistance groups, held an historic meeting with President Thein Sein in
Naypyitaw, and also held talks with Suu Kyi. The regime has held ceasefire
talks with other ethnic nationalities, and established some ceasefire
agreements. These steps are very welcome, but they do not in themselves
guarantee peace. Ceasefires – an end to active fighting – are not enough,
because without a political solution there can be no durable peace.
The
government, the ethnic nationalities and the democracy movement must hold
talks, and a political system which grants the ethnic people equal rights and a
degree of autonomy must be established through dialogue. Burma's regime must
embrace the "F" word they have resisted for so long: federalism.
Contrary to their view, federalism is the system which would keep the country
together, rather than splitting it apart.
Of
particular concern currently is the situation in Kachin State, northern Burma.
I visited the Kachin on the China-Burma border in January, and heard some of
the worst stories of human rights violations I have ever heard, in twelve years
of working on Burma. I heard many stories of killings of civilians. I met a
woman who, just two months previously, while pregnant, hid for two days under a
bed, without food or water, to escape the Burma Army. She heard bullets fly
over her, and a Burma Army officer tell his troops: “If you see a Kachin, just
kill them”.
I met a
pastor who had been arrested and severely beaten and tortured non-stop for six
hours. I met a woman whose husband had been decapitated before being shot. I
met a 12-year-old boy who had seen his mother shot dead. All these incidents
had occurred within the final few months of 2011 and even in January, and I
have heard accounts of similar atrocities occurring since my visit. I hope the
Prime Minister will raise the situation in Kachin State with Thein Sein and
others, and make it clear to them that these horrific attacks must stop and the
war in Kachin State must end, if Burma’s reform process is to be taken
seriously.
Another
issue Cameron should raise is the often overlooked plight of the Rohingya
people, a predominantly Muslim group who have lived in northern Arakan State
for generations. The Rohingyas are denied citizenship and are effectively
stateless, subjected to severe restrictions and persecution. Until their
citizenship is restored, and they are granted equal rights with all other
citizens of Burma, true democracy and freedom cannot take root.
So
there is much on Cameron’s "to do" list on Friday, and a careful
balance to strike. To fail to ignore the progress already made could undermine
Thein Sein and the reformers and stall the process. But to ignore the
continuing human rights violations and the need for substantial institutional
and constitutional changes, to embrace the situation today as the end of the
road, and to lift all pressure on the regime to change could equally undermine
chances of real democracy in Burma.
So far,
the Government has got it about right, and William Hague’s pledge of gradual
lifting of sanctions, in proportionate response to changes on the ground,
rather than removing all sanctions in one go, is the right one. When I was in
Rangoon in January, everyone I met – activists who have supported sanctions and
those who have been critical – emphasized that to lift all pressure in one go,
before change is secured, would be disastrous. We must maintain our leverage
and ensure that sanctions are lifted step by step.
As the
first western leader to visit Burma in decades, the Prime Minister has a unique
opportunity to make good our failed promises of the past, support the reformers
and the democrats, and help encourage real change that will bring the freedom
and peace for which all the people of Burma have struggled, at great cost, for
so long.
Benedict
Rogers
mizzima.com
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