As the maritime standoff between China and
the Philippines enters a fourth week, attention has shifted to what role the
United States may play in the escalating territorial conflict over a shoal in
the South China Sea.
During
an unprecedented "2+2" meeting held earlier this week between US
State Secretary Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Philippine
Foreign Affairs Secretary Alberto del Rosario and Defense Secretary Voltaire
Gazmin, the US said it will remain neutral in the sovereignty dispute, but
reaffirmed its commitment to the 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty
(MDT), which provides for each country to come to the other's defense in the
event of a third country attack.
Clinton
clarified that the US will defend freedom of navigation in the South China Sea,
areas of which Manila refers to as the West Philippine Sea. "While we do
not take sides on the competing sovereignty claims to land features in the
South China Sea, as a Pacific power we have a national interest in freedom of
navigation, the maintenance of peace and stability, respect for international
law, and the unimpeded, lawful commerce across our sea lanes," she said.
Del
Rosario called on the US to help bolster its naval capabilities and for greater
assistance towards developing a "minimum credible defense posture".
Over the years, successive Philippine governments have relied on the MDT with
the US for matters of external defense, often to the detriment of developing
domestic military capabilities. However, the current standoff with China has
put the bilateral treaty and the US's stated strategic "pivot"
towards Asia to an unprecedented test.
Until
1992, the treaty was buttressed by the US's presence at Subic Naval Base and
Clark Air Force Base in the Philippines, then the two biggest American bases
outside of the continental US. Aside from these two, there were also almost 100
other smaller US military bases situated across the country, making the
Philippines a vital American foothold in projecting its power in Asia during
the Cold War years, including during the height of the Vietnam War in the 1960s
and early 1970s.
Though
the Philippine Senate voted to reject a renewal of the military bases treaty in
1992, the two countries continued to conduct joint military exercises over the
years. Under a separate Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) forged in 1999, the US
was eventually granted permission to rotate special operations forces and
support units in shifts at a military base in the southern city of Zamboanga in
pursuit of Washington's so-called global war on terror. Although confined to an
advisory role, US troops are known to have been involved in ground operations
against the Abu Sayyaf terror group in the remote Sulu province.
Clinton's
ambiguous position on the Scarborough Shoal standoff was a word-for-word
playback of a US Congressional Research report issued in early April. The parse
of the US response was that unless China attacks integral Philippine territory,
rather than contested claims in the South China Sea, the US will refrain from
any military intervention.
Philippine
officials involved in the 2+2 meeting accepted the US's non-committal response
and echoed Clinton's call for a diplomatic solution to the territorial dispute.
In their statements, the two ministers admitted that the Philippines has
neglected its external defense capabilities as the government poured military
resources into internal conflicts, including combating a communist insurgency,
Muslim separatist groups and the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group.
At the
same time, Manila produced a military hardware wish list, including ships,
planes and radar facilities. The US acknowledged the pending sale of a second US
Coast Guard cutter to the Philippines later this year. Philippine officials
have requested that the second ship be delivered with its electronics search
and weapons systems, including the Close-In Weapons Systems (CIWSs) vital in
air/missile defense, intact.
Reports
last year indicated that President Benigno Aquino was keen to acquire at least
one squadron of refurbished F-16 fighters from the US. Should such a deal push
through, it would help to place the Philippines on a near equal footing with
its regional neighbors, which operate a mix of Western and Russian multi-role
fighters (MRFs). It remains to be seen, though, if Washington will agree to
this prospective fighter deal and its implications for the regional balance of
power.
In
recent years, the Philippines has expanded its coastal observation capabilities
under the so-called Coast Watch program, details of which remain inaccessible
to the media. This same surveillance program was responsible for spotting the
presence of Chinese fishing vessels at Scarborough Shoal some 125 miles [201
kilometers] away from the western shore of Luzon, prompting the military to
confirm it through a Navy observation plane and the subsequent deployment of
its flagship, BRP Gregorio del Pilar (the former US Coast Guard cutter acquired
last year), which precipitated the month-long standoff.
Deterrent
build-up
US
support for upgrading the Philippines' radar facilities would enhance its
ability to guard its shores and keep a closer watch over disputed islets and
waters. With the focus of Manila's military modernization plan scheduled to
turn from internal to external defense concerns, Manila has tapped into the
earnings of the Malampaya natural gas fields off Palawan (near the contested
Spratly Islands) to acquire more arms. Revenues from the gas fields were used
for the purchase of the craft now known as the BRP Gregorio del Pilar and the
forthcoming purchase of its sister ship this year. A third ship and smaller
vessel acquisitions are also reportedly in the works.
Manila
is also currently reviewing bids for Lead-in Flight Trainers (LIFTs), planes
that ostensibly are used for advance training of fighter jet pilot candidates.
Current models, however, now carry almost the same capabilities as Multi-Role
Fighters (MRFs), including radar and missile armaments. Such planes would give
the Philippine Air Force a trainer craft that could be adapted for limited
fighter or attack modes and serve as preparation for the acquisition of proper
MRFs. Italian (M-346 aircraft), Italian-Brazilian (AMX-ATA), Korean (T/A-50),
and Russian (Yak-130) companies are currently competing for the contract.
But can
the Philippine economy bear the financial burden of logistically supporting
such a sophisticated fighting force? With the standoff at Scarborough Shoal,
acquisition of these big-ticket items will be given higher priority. Maintaining
sophisticated air and naval assets, providing support infrastructure like
airfields, radar facilities, docks and supply and repair facilities, training
the pilots, ground crew, and naval crew, and sustaining the cost of their
operations will prove more difficult.
If a
shooting war breaks out with China, military operations will take a heavy toll
on the national budget, as demonstrated in 2000 when the Joseph Estrada
government launched a military offensive against the rebel Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF). The Malampaya natural gas fields' earnings, while
substantial, are not entirely dedicated for Philippine external defense
procurements.
Military,
political and financial concerns are all driving Manila into winning
unequivocal assurance from the US for more military support. The sense of
strategic panic has even driven President Aquino to declare recently that the
Philippines is open to the idea of allowing American forces more access to
Philippine bases. The pronouncement tiptoes around a constitutional provision
banning the permanent stationing of foreign troops in the country.
Secretary
Clinton's statement on US neutrality in the territorial dispute, however, could
put a damper on any such deployments. But the US appears to be making up in
other areas. In an official statement released by the Philippines on May 3, the
US government agreed to triple the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) it will
award to the Philippines this year, from US$11.9 million in 2011 to US$30
million this year. The US also agreed during the 2+2 Meeting to share real-time
surveillance data on naval activity in the South China Sea with its Philippine
counterparts.
Clinton's
stated interest in maintaining freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is
also noteworthy. Not only China, but Japan, South Korea, India and the US have
vital interests in keeping the flow of goods and gas unobstructed in the South
China Sea. China's stated claim of the entire maritime area as shown in its
nine-dash map endangers those sea lanes and has prompted the US to re-assert
its power and influence in the region.
Despite
its statement of neutrality, the US has also sent a signal to the Philippine
government (as well as other smaller claimant countries in the region) that it
is willing to resume its role of global policeman in one of the busiest sea
lanes in the world.
The
US's evolving strategy appears to include a stronger presence in the South
China Sea to counterbalance China's rising influence (without resort to a
shooting war) while at the same time supporting the Philippines, Vietnam and
others to develop sufficient naval defense capabilities to deter China and
preempt tensions among smaller claimant states. (As of this writing, Taiwan had
also waded into the Scarborough Shoal controversy by staking its claim to the
territory.)
Such a
strategy represents a delicate tightrope act, one that aims to contain China's
territorial ambitions in the South China while avoiding a destabilizing arms
race among smaller claimant states. This emerging "US-China-smaller
claimants" scheme could yet achieve a new balance of power and uneasy
peace in the region, one that ideally keeps the diplomats talking and hawkish
elements on all sides from opening fire.
George
Amurao
Asia
Times
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