VietNamNet Bridge – The dollar price quoted by commercial banks
and the price in the black market bounced back earlier this week. However,
after that, the dollar price has decreased again. The State Bank has sent
noticeable signal about the dong/dollar exchange rate.
On March 5 morning, commercial
banks all raised their quoted dollar prices. It was for the second time after
Tet holiday the dollar price exceeded the VND21,000 dong per dollar threshold,
marching towards the ceiling level of VND21,036 dong per dollar.
However, on March 6, the dollar
began depreciating. Banks reduced the quoted price to below VND21,000 per
dollar with the quoted price hovering around VND20,980 per dollar.
While experts were busy analyzing
the phenomenon to find out the reasons behind the sharp rise of the dollar
prices. The State Bank made some adjustments, sending signals to the members of
the interbank foreign currency market.
On March 5 and 6, the State Bank
unexpectedly reduced the dollar sale prices sharply. A report of the watchdog
agency showed that after one year of keeping the dollar ceiling sale price
level at VND21,036 per dollar, the level has been lowered to VND20,950 per
dollar, which represented a sharp decrease of VND86 per dollar.
As such, the sale prices quoted
by the State Bank\s Exchange were lower than that quoted by commercial banks.
Thoi bao Kinh te Vietnam has
quoted some experts as saying that the watchdog agency implies that it is ready
to sell dollars to stabilize the market at “reasonable” prices instead of the
ceiling price. The central bank has also sent a signal that there has been no
serious supply and demand imbalance which may cause big changes in the
dong/dollar exchange rate.
The analysts said this could be
the main reason that has made the dollar price decrease in the last few days.
Le Quang Trung, Acting General
Director of VIB Bank, also said on VnExpress that the State Bank has tried to
cool the market down by lowering the dollar sale price at the bank’s exchange.
The message the central bank
wants to convey is that it would sell dollars at low prices to balance the
supply and demand, if necessary. “This is the timely action by the State Bank
to intervene the foreign currency market. It once did this in 2012,” Trung
commented.
Opinions vary about the factors
which have led to the dollar price fluctuations recently.
Some experts believe that the
smuggling of gold rings has led to the higher demand for dollars, once traders
tried to collect dollars from the public to make payment for the imports.
Meanwhile, others think that some
small commercial banks have pushed up the purchases to offset the foreign
currencies they used before.
Especially, some have predicted
that the dong interest rates would go down further, which would lead to the
narrower gap between the dong and the dollar interest rates, and lead to the
depreciation of the local currency.
While many economists urged to
devaluate the local currency in order to help boost exports, the State Bank has
been insisting on its viewpoint of stabilizing the dong/dollar exchange rate,
stating that it would make intervention in case big fluctuations occur.
The efforts to stabilize the
exchange rate have been backed by the macroeconomic indexes. Vietnam had
relatively high trade surplus in the first two months of the year, at $1.7
billion, while the surplus of $3 billion has been forecast for the general
balance in 2013.
Compiled by C. V
Business & Investment Opportunities
Saigon Business Corporation Pte Ltd (SBC) is incorporated in Singapore since 1994. As Your Business Companion, we propose a range of services in Strategy, Investment and Management, focusing Health care and Life Science with expertise in ASEAN 's area. We are currently changing the platform of www.yourvietnamexpert.com, if any request, please, contact directly Dr Christian SIODMAK, business strategist, owner and CEO of SBC at christian.siodmak@gmail.com. Many thanks.
No comments:
Post a Comment