North Korea - Which path, Mr Kim?

Next to the United States, how South Korea telegraphs policy intentions towards North Korea could have a bearing on the path that would be chosen by Pyongyang's new leader, Mr Kim Jong Un.

In this context, the prompting tone of South Korean President Lee Myung Bak's New Year broadcast directed at the North is a welcome switch. He sees the end of the Kim Jong Il era as a "turning point", which presents an opportunity for positive change. He is open to a dialogue and aid flows, provided the North would stop its nuclear programme. The proviso is invariably a non-negotiable to Pyongyang, but form and nuance should receive due weight in the peninsula's relational choreography. The tack should be seen in this light.

Mr Lee has been thoroughly hardline, convinced no amount of goodwill, material aid and appeal to kinship would pull the North out of its Stalinist mould. Supporters of his policy, which reversed a decade of "sunshine" gestures under two presidents, say he is being practical: South Korea is not to be played for a sucker. Critics say he has brought nothing but interminable tension into people's lives. They think he did not acquit himself well over the sinking of a naval craft allegedly by the North and a subsequent artillery attack on the South's territory last year. Such judgments are best left to history. It could be that Mr Lee is mindful of his legacy. New developments are indeed a "window of opportunity", as he says - not just for Pyongyang, but for himself as well. He has a year left of the presidency, restricted by law to one term.

What should engage international attention is that the North Korean leadership is being given what amounts to a safe-conduct pass to work its way out of chronic penury and an ideological time warp. China should persuade its ally to say "Yes". Dialogue may lead to any one or a combination of these outcomes: resumed six-party talks to end the diplomatic isolation, substantive economic links with South Korea, food and energy aid, a fresh start at normalising relations with the US, more stable ties with Japan.

Already, the North has trotted out well-rehearsed abuse of the South, adding for effect that there would be no change to state dogma and policy. This, too, is standardised choreography. A provocation mounted to demonstrate the young Kim's manhood is of course possible. It would be disastrous. One must hope the young man is well-adjusted. But Mr Lee had balanced his remarks with the reminder that there would be a strong response if the South was attacked. Mr Kim Jong Il's passing fortuitously has placed the two Koreas at the crossroads. The son should think hard which path to take.

News Desk

The Straits Times

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