There
is some basis for scepticism surrounding Myanmar's recent release of 300
political prisoners. The move still leaves about 2,000 behind bars. There is no
assurance that it is not a shadow play to secure the 2014 Asean chairmanship.
In the months ahead, hardliners in the
military will also resist any form of political reform that would compromise
their positions. Weary Myanmar watchers will also point out that previous
reform and openings were only followed by subsequent crackdowns.
This time, however, the scope and depth of the
reforms have been sweeping, and warrant a serious look. The release comes in
the wake of the government's increasing dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,
growing tolerance of criticism and calls for peace with ethnic minority groups.
In November, the country held historic (albeit stage-managed) elections and
released Ms Suu Kyi. Even the government's press censor has suggested that he
put himself out of commission, given that censorship of the press is "not
in harmony with democratic practices". Such a stab at reform is bold
indeed in the Myanmar context.
This is where the West needs to play a role.
For the longest time, the United States, Europe and Australia have said that
the freeing of political prisoners is an essential step for the lifting of the
vise of sanctions on Myanmar. No doubt, only a fraction of Myanmar's political
prisoners were released, but the move - issuing as it does from the broader
context of political reform - is certainly a step in the right direction. Last
month, Myanmar suspended the construction of a China-backed dam worth US$3.6
billion - a move that could signal it wants the West to play a significant role
in the country, no matter how useful China is as a strategic ally and investor.
It has already been proven quite conclusively
that using punitive sanctions to change the behaviour of targeted states is
ineffective. In Myanmar's case, sanctions have only made the junta more
obdurate, lined the pockets of well-connected leaders and adversely affected
the country's poor. As the International Crisis Group contends in a recent
report, sanctions have encouraged a siege mentality among Myanmar's leadership
and harmed ordinary Myanmarese. A faster pace of political change - as
evidenced in Myanmar this year - would only undermine the case for sanctions,
it argued.
In January, Asean was right on the money when
it called on the West to lift the sanctions on Myanmar. Nine months is a long
time in politics, and Myanmar has already gone a long way to show its
sincerity. It is time for the West to reconsider.
News Desk
The Straits Times
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